Europe's Best Goal Scoring Partnerships

After writing about the Premier League's best goal scoring partnerships a while back, I was inundated (one comment) with requests for something similar for other leagues. So, instead of signing up to do some accountancy exams that I've been putting off for 13 years, I decided the best way to spend some spare time would be to put together another list for absolutely no reward. I hope somebody somewhere enjoys reads this.

With the return to favour of partnerships such as Suarez and Sturridge, (#dare to) Zlatan and Cavani, and Negredo and Aguero, what better time to have a look back at some of the best partnerships before them. Having searched a whole two pages of Google without finding something exactly the same as this, I thought it was time to put together a combined list.

Rules and Workings
I've decided to go back 25 years to cover the 1988-89 to the 2012-13 seasons. Why 25 years? Well that just about covers my football watching memory and it's a nice round number. I've decided to include just the Top four Leagues in Europe - the top divisions in England, Germany, Italy and Spain (based on European Trophies won).

A partnership is only considered so if both players (regardless of position)have scored at least 10 goals each. For this list, I've only combined those pairs with 30 goals or more, so sadly that would exclude van Wolfswinkel and Elmander's herculean haul of 2 goals from this season. Tough break fellas.

A further blow to the Norwich duo's chances are that this season's partnerships are not included as they'll instantly make this post out of date. Expect to see Suarez and Sturridge included in the next update in space year 2038.

Joking aside, as I type, Suarez and Sturridge have just hit their combined 44th, 45th, 46th and 47th goals of the season against Cardiff, so they definitely make it into the Top Partnerships list, but as the season hasn't ended yet, their number is likely to change.

It's worth noting that the German League has fewer games, and the other leagues have varied in number of teams.

And lastly, it's league goals only.

The Stats

In all, there's a whopping 221 instances of 30 goal partnerships in the Top Four European leagues over the last 25 completed seasons - actually a lot higher than I'd expected. Spain lead the way with 70, followed by England (61), Italy (49) and Germany (41). No real shock there as Germany has fewer games, as did Italy for a good chunk of the 25 seasons in question. In terms of clubs represented, there are a decent 61 (Spain 17, England 16, Italy 15 and Germany 13).

At the top end of the food chain are the mighty Real Madrid with a 30 goal partnership in 19 of the 25 seasons recorded. No wonder they win quite a lot. As you'd expect, anything they can do, Barcelona can almost do (that would make a catchy song), and the Catalans are second on the list with a healthy 17 partnerships represented. Aside from Spain, England have Man Utd and Liverpool in double figures (13 + 10), whilst somewhat surprisingly, it's Bayer Leverkusen who lead the way in Germany with 10 partnerships making the 30 goal mark. For Italy, AC Milan are the team with the most deadly duos, featuring 8 times.

At the bottom end, there are 25 clubs with just one 30 goal partnership, sadly, my team don't even have that. The likes of Coventry's Dublin and Huckerby, are joined for their day in the sun by Villarreal's Forlan and Riquelme (2004-05). And who could forget Bochum's world famous Thomas Christiansen and Vahid Hashemian with their 31 goal haul in 2002-03. I know I certainly won't.

The 50 goal club

As mentioned above, there's a great deal of 30 goal partnerships, so many in fact, that I wonder why I used that number. So to get things going, here's a list of those partnerships that scored at least 50 league goals in a season. Just to manage expectations - it's a bit heavy with Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.



In fact it's basically La Liga's greatest partnerships plus three others.

As its illegal not to mention both Ronaldo and Messi when speaking about the Spanish league, it's worth having a quick look at their record in this list. Interestingly, both players have been part of a successful partnership as the second scorer - which is really what you'd have expected a few years back, with both players featuring out wide early on. Ronaldo's first season in Madrid saw him form one of the most balanced partnerships on this list, with Gonzalo Higuain. The Argentine banging in a decent 27 goals to the shy Portuguese's 26. A pretty good debut season before the championship manager stats started kicking in. Messi's season as the second scorer was in the 2008-09 season that saw Samuel Eto'o hitting 30 to Messi's 23.

Man City fans may be surprised to see Edin Dzeko in 6th place with the wall decorating Brazilian Grafite (I'm sorry) making up the pair - the highest Bundeliga entry with 54 goals. Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard have combined for 30+ goals on two occasions, with the 2009-10 season seeing a combined 51 league goals for the Chelsea legends - albeit not a typical strike partnership. However, in first place for England are Andy Cole and Peter Beardsley with a whopping 55 - all for a promoted club too. Impressive stuff. Must have been before Cole needed five chances to score (Glenn Hoddle's words, not mine).

Fans of 90s football will be disappointed not to see any Italian partnerships breaking the 50 goal mark but heartened to see the Original Ronaldo and (possibly the original) Luis Enrique with 51 goals in the 1996-97 season. Ronaldo who started the season aged just 19 would score 47 goals (all tournaments) in his only season with the Catalan giants. Damn you Gods of injury.

What is also interesting (depending on your definition), is that 11 of the 50 goal partnerships have been in the last five years - at a time when 4-5-1's have become the norm. Although a lot of them are rather dependent on Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo being involved.



The number one partnership sees Ronaldo paired up with Higuain for the 3rd time to make a 50 goal mark. The winning season being 2011-12 when Mourinho's men managed to break Barca's dominance of La Liga. A phenomenal 68 league goals from just two players is quite frankly bonkers.

Both Ronaldo and Messi feature in four 50 goal partnerships - Messi with 4 different partners, the big flirt.

Top 20 Partnerships By Country

I planned to show a top ten by country, but La Liga's are already on show, and it would also mean leaving out the likes of Batistuta and Oliveira who thrived on Rui Costa's assists in 1997-98. And because we haven't featured much from Serie A just yet, now seems as good a time as any. So without further ado:

Serie A Top Scoring Partnerships 1988-2013


Premier League/Division One Top Scoring Partnerships 1988-2013


La Liga Top Scoring Partnerships 1988-2013


Bundesliga Top Scoring Partnerships 1988-2013


I know what you're thinking - where's Vialli and Mancini? They were undoubtedly a great strike partnership, but they were also playing in the most defensive era of a league known for being defensive. They're best season together came in 1990-91 when they combined to score 31 league goals (ranked 35th in the Serie A charts).

It also turns out there was top flight football in England before the Premier League, I'm just as surprised as you. There's three entries from the old Division One, with Barnes and Rush scoring a decent 39 combined goals in the triumphant 1989-90 season for Liverpool, followed by Le Tissier and Wallace (Rod) for Southampton and Wright and Campbell for Arsenal.

Spain's list sees the crowd pleasing entry of Romario and Stoichkov, who notched 46 goals in 1993-94 whilst the Bundesliga entry reminds us of just how good Roy Makaay was. In fact the Dutchman is one of a number of players who feature across multiple leagues, with the likes of Ronaldo, Ronaldo (not a typo), Ibrahimovic, Eto'o, Raul and Berbatov (along with others).

Other Notes of Interest
Top 10 Teams are:

Real Madrid	19
Barcelona	17
Man Utd	13
Liverpool	10
Bayer Leverkusen	10
Arsenal	9
Bayern Munich	9
AC Milan	8
Valencia	7
Juventus	7

Most Featured Players:

Only 8 players have featured in five or more 30 goal partnerships and top spot doesn't go to Messi or Ronaldo, but rather Raul who has been involved in 10 great partnerships. Across two countries, he scored goals with Morientes, Zamorano, van Nistelrooy (2), Ronaldo (2), Guti, Huntelaar, Higuain, and Suker. That's impressive.

The other compatibles are Cristiano Ronaldo (7), Messi, Del Piero, Makaay, Eto'o, Berbatov, and Rooney (all five).

So there you have it, it's not just the big man-little man partnership (Quinn-Phillips), or the classic goalpoaching number 9 and playmaking number 10 (Romario and Stoichkov) that make great partnerships. It can be wide men with false number 9s, a lone striker with an advanced midfielder (Torres and Gerrard/Drogba and Lampard) or if you're lucky, it may even be Toni Polster and Bruno Labbadia (FC Koln 1994-95).

This season will see entries from Suarez and Sturridge, Ronaldo and Benzema, and Messi and Sanchez. Tevez and Llorente also stand a good chance of joining the elite club along with a few others.

I'll chuck the full list up in the coming days.

Cheers,

Liam

Buy, Sell, Hold? Premier League Forecast - Round 21

Arsenal improved from last season? Nope. Man Utd destined to finish outside the Top 4? Unlikely. In what is the first ever guest post, Michael Geaghan makes his Premier League predictions based on the season so far and the results in the remaining corresponding fixtures from last season.....

Man City to win the league. Arsenal guaranteed top 4. Man Utd’s league season already finished. Palace to get relegated. Newcastle top half. Maybe, Maybe not.

They say a league only tells the truth at the end of the season. We saw a glimpse of the reality behind this at the midway point in the current season, where the only change in the top 4 was Everton replacing Man Utd in the coveted Champions League positions, even though the talk for the first 15/16 games of the season was whether Liverpool could mount a challenge on the league title only to finish the halfway point in 5^th and 6 points behind the leaders.

Every fan has their own memories of their own personal experience of luck at the timing of playing teams, injuries, after a midweek game, whilst the opposition are on a good run, a bad run, the same applying for their team. Starting games with confidence has a huge effect on the outcome of results, but the simplicity is that all teams play each team home and away. At the start of each season each manager will identify where they are going to pick up points, and at the same time expectations are managed post games as to whether their teams have ‘dropped points’ or gained bonus unexpected points.

Every week I overwrite the previous season’s results with the current season’s – for the corresponding fixtures. For example, Arsenal are generally touted as the ‘most improved team of the season so far’. That isn’t actually the case. Although they were top of the league at the halfway point and remain there as I write, they are in fact one point worse off than the same games last season. We all remember, I certainly do as a spurs fan, the incredible run that Arsenal went on towards the end of the season that has slightly skewed the figures, but it does show that they have now consistently been a good team for quite some time. The season finishing and restarting just fell at the wrong time as the last 12 months have definitely showed champion consistency and quality, just not in the same season...so far anyway. This also points towards the basis for this, in looking at the premier league table now and as a forecast for the final positions. If the results are as similar as last season, as has been the case so far, they could even find themselves outside of the top four.

After 21 games, as mentioned above, Arsenal are one point worse off than the same games played last season. I mentioned I am a spurs fan, they are actually one point better off. Clearly though, Arsenal are entering the final 17 games of the season with confidence and with a very different pressure hanging over their shoulders. The games they struggled in last season are the games they have yet to play.

I think a fair argument is that Man City are the best footballing team in the league at the moment and they have the strongest squad, they are though competing on four fronts. they are brutal in front of goal regardless of who the opposition is. The recent game at Newcastle goes to show though that they can get beat, they didn’t, a crazy refereeing decisions helped make sure they got all three points on the day, but they are not indestructible. Their start of season questionable away form appears to have been eradicated. They have already accumulated a staggering 16 points more than in the same games last season. Plus they have achieved this with a little more panache than last season, 28 goals more than the correlating games last season (see goals comparison in the table below). With the bookies end of season points tally spread for City currently set at 82.5-84 I would certainly be buying that, as they are on target for around 88 points. Inheriting last seasons results to complete the league forecast will result in them winning every home game. At home they only have Chelsea, of the so called ‘big teams’, to entertain at the Etihad and so that is not an unachievable target. Away from Manchester they inherit results from last season where they picked up only 14 points (from a possible 24) from the remaining 8 games they have left on the road.

At the bottom of the league, the promoted teams within this system inherit the respective relegated team from last season - Cardiff assume Wigan’s results, Hull assume Reading’s and Palace assume QPR’s. This only really stands due to the team staying in the premier league retaining their results and so implying the result against the promoted teams. The games played against each other is the obvious draw back in this system.

Of the promoted teams though interestingly, and at the same time worryingly for Cardiff and Palace, is that on a like for like comparison Cardiff have accumulated exactly the same amount of points as Wigan had over the same games last season and Palace are 1 point worse off - and that’s against a miserable return of only 25 points that QPR managed to get last season. It’s been quite obvious to see that Hull have certainly done themselves proud in the first half of the season and are well on their way to achieving the 40 points target. On that note I think it may be as low as a good goal difference on 36 points needed to stay in the division this season.

Man Utd at the top end of the division finished the league 11 points better off than second placed City. This means that not only are they finding it tougher this season, but they are inheriting good points emphasising how many points they have dropped compared to last season. A staggering 13 points worse off than last season, by far the largest difference in points versus the previous season. They are though Man Utd, and despite what everyone says, they have the same players as last year and can still very easily go and beat any other team in the league. They are still on target for 76 points, a target that is still very achievable, as they have definitely turned the corner in my view. I think they are out of the title race, but by no means are out for the race for the top four.

West Ham, which I am sure most of you would have noticed, have also been shedding points. They currently sit in the relegation zone having dropped 10 points versus the same games played last season.

Aside from Man City’s increase in fortunes by the 10 points mentioned earlier, Southampton are 11 points better off, and Liverpool close behind with a better return to the tune of 9 points.

See below the forecast league table after 38 games:

How to interpret this?

Stats are stat, numbers are numbers, so long as the assumptions are clear and understood then anyone can interpret the numbers as they wish. For me though the main advantages are vs. the Spreads being offered by bookies as to the final points tally for each individual team. You may be surprised at how some of them read and below is a brief summary comment on each team and the spreads currently being offered as at 15^th January 2014. This is by no means any solicitation to encourage anyone to place any bets, or to entice or act as advice in placing any bets, it is shown purely as food for thought based along the lines of the article and along side the fact that the league only tells the truth after all games have been completed.

The format of the note will be:

Current league position: Team Name: Forecast points using my assumptions: Spread being offered: Bet Signal (Buy/Sell/hold/Other, for other see the comment below). If the forecast points and the spread are to close and so no real difference ‘Hold’ will be the call. It is interesting how similar they are and so I only consider the real opportunities in the spreads offered as worth buying or selling.

1: Arsenal: 72: 79-80.5: Other.

I would avoid betting on Arsenal either way. The bookies have them finishing 3^rd but as to the points I think they will pick up more than the forecast indicated 72. They dropped points against Swansea, Fulham, Man City and Man Utd at home, whom they are yet to play and away from home dropped points against Stoke, Chelsea, Everton, Tottenham & Southampton. As you glance over the results some are realistic and will happen, I don’t think all will though and so feel a better return than the forecasted 72 points will be achieved, just not enough to want to buy or sell the spread either way from the bookie.

2: Man City: 88: 82.5-84: Buy

As already spoken about I can see City smashing the 84 points being offered by the bookies.

3: Chelsea: 80: 79.5-81: Hold

I think that if you held a gun to my head I would be buying the points as 81. At home only dropping points against Spurs and Man Utd to come, do not give a huge amount of room to deter from last season results to come. Away from home is a different kettle of fish. Of the games remaining they dropped points at Swansea, Palace (well QPR back then), Liverpool, City & West Brom, and I can’t see them dropping points for what would effectively be every other away game. They will drop points but not at the rate they did. The forecast inheriting all these dropped points is bang in the middle of the odds spread being offered and so I would consider a very prudent forecast and buy would be the spread as I think more probability they will pick up more than the forecasted points than they will drop them.

4: Liverpool: 70: 73-74.5: Hold (due to commentary below)

They are a bit of a wild card this season, mainly because of the little genius from Uruguay. Love him or hate him, the guy is incredible. They are yet to host Chelsea, Arsenal, City and Spurs at home (probably shouldn’t include spurs as a possible threat after the 5-0 mauling at the lane a few weeks back). Of those teams they only got full points against spurs last season and so there is a lot of scope for their points tally to improve, coupled with getting beat by Villa at home. Liverpool do not have what would be considered as really tough games away from home apart from Man Utd, for which they are not ‘expected’ to get three points.

5: Everton: 66: 67.5-69: Sell

I think the big difference in the second half of the season will come from the home wins against Man Utd and Man City, which I can’t see them getting full points from again. Away from home results I can see staying fairly consistent with last season, games to play away from home = 9, those games last season saw them win 1, lose 4 and draw 4.

6: Tottenham: 73: 68.5-70:  Buy

I promise this is unbiased. I think the home games will return a similar amount of points, Man City and Arsenal are yet to play at White Hart Lane from which Spurs got full points from last season, but also Fulham and Cardiff (Wigan last season) for which they lost both games. The two toughest away games they have are at Liverpool and Chelsea, they only gained 1 point from the same games last season so do not have a lot of points to replace. Their away from, of which I am about to curse, has so far been good.

7: Man Utd: 76: 69-70.5: Buy

They will have a better second half of the season than they did the first. Sure in the second half of the season so far they dropped all three points at home against Spurs, but they did last season, so was in the numbers as an assumed result.

8: Newcastle: 47: 53.5-55: Sell

My nephew won’t be happy as an avid Newcastle fan but the points spread offered is some way above where the forecast is plotting them. The games they have remaining didn’t yield a lot of points for them last year. The forecast has them getting less than a point per game for the rest of the season. I don’t think they will finish as low as 47 but would still be selling the points tally being offered.

9: Southampton: 52: 52.5-54: Hold

They are a little hit and miss again following the great start to the season. Injuries, suspensions and fatigue have set in. I don’t see a big indicator away from the spread being offered to call either way, and with the concerns at the club surrounding who will be in-charge tomorrow let alone at the end of the season, i would avoid placing any money on Southampton either way.

10: Swansea: 44: 42.5-44: Hold

Any team can turn up when you play Swansea, they can be world beaters on any given day. They are hit and miss though and with Europe about to kick off again with a two leg Napoli distraction I think the point’s tally spread is in line with the forecast.

11: Hull: 35: 39-40.5: Hold

The forecast numbers using my assumptions have been skewed due to inheriting Reading’s results from last season, so I am avoiding this. I think they will stay up, they are spending money. All they need to do now is sort out the name debate and for what its worth I think the name should stay Hull City AFC. This is England, we are traditionalists, we do not have franchise football, and we don’t want it. Dr Allam, you have been great at Hull so far, leave it as Hull City AFC and concentrate your time, legal and marketing money on improving Hull City AFC and the local area. By all means give a name to something you have given birth to or created from nothing, but don’t change the name of a 110 year old club.

12: Aston Villa: 40: 39.5-40: Hold

The bookies have them finishing as the stats show. It is a shame really as I thought they had put in the hard graft last season and had turned the corner, that they were going to start pushing up the league a little with a little more consistency. They seem to have sizzled out a bit. They gave the Gooners a good run for their money the other night, but need a lot more consistency towards the back end of the season.

13: Stoke: 45: 39.5-41: Buy

A top half finish is in the sights of Stoke.  A change of manager hasn’t really had a huge change in fortunes, but they are showing the fight they have had since joining the premier league. So silly dropped points at home are built into the numbers from last seasons home loss against West Ham, and as a comparison only picked up 10 points away from home from the 9 away games, of which most are against bottom half opposition and I think they will better that in the latter stages of this season.

14: West Brom: 39: 39.5-41: Hold

They were a good solid outfit last season and have already dropped an additional 10 points from the 21 same games last season. At home they seemed to beat the teams they shouldn’t and lose to the teams they should, well that’s how the forecast looks, I can see them getting 6 points at home against Liverpool and Chelsea, but at the same time can see them getting more points than the zero obtained at home against stoke, Cardiff and Fulham last season. There is not real indication either side from the spread set at the bookies so avoiding this one.

15: West Ham: 39: 36-37.5: Buy

They wont get relegated. I think they are too good. They just need the ‘senior’ player to stop acting like an impetuous 17 year old. You simply can’t have your leader getting sent off so needlessly. It could be a blessing in disguise as it will give others a chance, and watching the game at Cardiff they definitely showed a lot more togetherness than I have seen (away from White Hart Lane of course where they have had a great amount of joy from this season). To reach the 39 forecasted points they only need to better 4 points from the remaining 8 away games and 15 from the 27 points available from home games.

16: Norwich: 42: 36.5-38: Buy

They have five very winnable games to come at home, one they could possibly win and three I can’t see them getting anything from of which last season they gained 17 points. This included beating Arsenal though and so I think the 17 points is the top end of what they will achieve from the remaining games. Away from home they only picked up 5 points from the equivalent 24 points available last season. With Cardiff, Swansea, Villa, Fulham, West Ham & Southampton on the away day calendar equally hit and miss they could see them selves getting the forecast 42 points and more importantly safety.

17: Fulham: 44: 34.5-36: Buy

The remaining fixtures do contain three good results they achieved away from home last season, 3 points at Spurs, Swansea and West Brom. I don’t see them achieving three away wins again but there is certainly enough games in their favour to gain more than the suggested 17 points the bookies are suggesting are at the top end of what they can achieve in the remainder of the season. I don’t think the 44 forecast will be achieved in full but they won’t be far off.

18: Cardiff: 36: 34-35.5: Hold

It’s been tough, especially when compared to their neighbours in Swansea.  Whilst I have no doubt Ole has a good understanding of the Premier League they do not look like picking up more points than the 36 forecasted to make.  Also considering the forecast contains away wins at Spurs, Southampton and West Brom I think the top end of the points Cardiff will achieve is already in the numbers. I hope the optimism of the club and the fans remain and that the forecast is wrong as I like having two teams of the county of Wales in the Premier League. If you haven’t been to Cardiff to watch sport go, it is home to, what I think is one of the greatest sporting venues, the millennium stadium and it is a great host city for most events.

19: Crystal Palace: 24: 30.5-32: Hold

The numbers say to sell, but realistically they have inherited terrible results from QPR, albeit that they are worse off season on season than the results they were skewed by the terrible results early on in the season. Tony Pulis has already forced through a change in fortunes but I don’t think they have enough quality or confidence to gain more than another 19ish points I think will be needed to stay up. It is all well drawing but they need some wins to gain points, and prevent others from getting those points and converting the draws to wins is going to be tough.

20: Sunderland: 36: 34.5-36: Hold

I think they will be on the cusp of relegation with 36 points. The forecast already includes them picking up 16 points from the 9 home games remaining, only 4 away from home though. They have some winnable games at home remaining that saw them drop points in last season, notably Swansea, Palace, Stoke, Southampton and West Brom, not winning any of the mentioned games. If they stay up it is going to have to be from home, away from home they have the hardest games to come: Arsenal, Newcastle, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Man City, only away at Norwich is a game Gus is planning on taking a lot from. The derby at St James' could be as crucial in the run in as it was last season.

To Conclude as at 15^th January 2014 the bets I would personally consider placing versus the final league points spead being offered are:

Buy:

Man City @ 84, Man Utd @ 70.5, Spurs @ 70, Stoke @ 41, Norwich @ 38, Fulham @ 36, West Ham @ 37.5

Sell:

Everton @ 67.5, Newcastle @ 53.5

How it works, The Assumptions.
We assume the previous season’s results as the starting point for the current season.

We then overwrite the previous result with the current seasons result as the game is played.

The league table is then adjusted to reflect the forecast finish for each team after 38 games.

Each promoted team inherits the respective relegated team, for the season 2013/14 the changes are as follows. Agreed this is the largest assumption but one would estimate that the premier league teams should be stronger and so the results of the teams remaining in the division start with the previous results. Quite appropriately the promoted sides are the wildcards in the top division for the first season.

Cardiff as the champions of the Championship inherit the previous seasons results of 18^th positioned Wigan

Hull as the Championship runner up inherit the previous seasons results of 19^th positioned Reading

Crystal Palace as the promoted team via the playoffs inherit the previous seasons results of bottom of the table QPR

What happened to the great English Striker?

With twenty seasons of the Premier League completed at the end of the 2011-12 season, I had a look at the best goalscoring partnerships (click here), and one thing that jumped out was the quality of English Striker in the first ten years, compared to the last ten. So with that in mind, I thought I'd highlight the trend...

Wayne Rooney is currently considered the only world class English striker and after his showing in Euro 2012 (and World Cup 2010 for that matter), even question marks have been raised over him. Runner up for the Premier League Golden Boot in both the 2009-10 and 2011-12 seasons, he's undoubtedly about more than just goals - but he's the closest English winner for the Golden Boot the league has seen since Kevin Phillips 30 goal haul in 1999-2000. That's twelve seasons without an Englishman top scoring in the English top division.

Now this isn't a dig a Rooney - far from it, he's doing his best to live up to the fine goalscoring tradition of his fellow country men, and but for injury at the end of the 2009-10 season, he surely would have gone on to win the title that Drogba won. It's just that he's England's best forward, and he's not even the best striker at his club anymore - playing second fiddle to the man that beat him in the scoring charts last season, Robin van Persie. So when did it all go wrong for the English forward, and why?

Rules

I've gone through the Top Scorers lists from the first Premier League season in 1992-93 (Englishman Brian Deane scoring the first goal) to the 2011-12 season - a nice neat 20 seasons, complete with a handy 10 year split. To keep things equal, I've only considered Premier League Goals, and although there were 42 game seasons until 1995-96, I've left them in as it was the same number of games regardless of the nationality of the players.
In terms of threshold, it's the Top 10 ranked goal scorers for each season. In several occasions that was more than ten players as there were several tied on the same amout of goals.

First Ten Years

You almost get nostalgic looking back. Shearer, Sheringham, Wright, Fowler, Collymore, Andy Cole, Les Ferdinand. All top class forwards. Even Michael Owen scored over half of his goals in the first ten years of the Premier League. Then you had good players like Chris Sutton, Dion Dublin, Tony Cottee, Kevin Phillips and Kevin Campbell - good players and prolific in spells.

So 21 different nationalities were represented in the first ten years of Premier League Top Scorers. No real surprise to see that English players were in the Top 10 scorers on 66 occasions out of a possible 106 - with the closest nationalities being Holland and France with 7 entries each. The players involved? Cantona, Anelka and Henry for France and Bergkamp, Hasselbaink and van Nistelrooy for the Dutch, all legends of the Premier League, and all top class talents.

The Americas are represented by just four entries - Juninho, Hamilton Ricard, Paulo Wanchope and midfield Gus Poyet. Somewhat surprisingly, there's only one entry from African players - with France born and bred Freddie Kanoute hitting 11 goals in 2000-01 (10th). The only other entries from outside of Europe were Australia's Mark Viduka, whose 17 goals in the same season, saw him finish in 4th place for the Golden Boot, and Trinidad and Tobago's Dwight Yorke who made the Top 10 on four occasions.

Elsewhere, there's another surprise when looking at the Ireland (Quinn), Scotland (Gallacher) and Wales (Hughes, Saunders, Hartson), who had a combined five entries. Perhaps the rot for Scottish football in particular has set in earlier than some thought, but that's for another discussion.

What of the English players? Well seven of the ten seasons saw an English winner - the first six seasons, followed by Kevin Phillips debut Premier League season in 1999-00. Shearer (three occasions), Andy Cole and Phillips all made or bettered the 30 goal mark, whilst Fowler (twice), Ferdinand and Sutton all scored 25 goals or more in a season. In total, the first ten years of the Premier League saw English players score 20 goals or more on 21 occasions.

Second Ten Years

The standout stat and the the centrepiece of this article is the drop in English goalscorers - there's been a reduction of 50% in the Top 10 ranked scorers list. Whilst the likes of Shearer, Ferdinand, Sheringham and Cole were all still playing into the second decade of the Premier League, they were all on the way down and nearing the end of their careers. Owen and Fowler were still in their twenties but couldn't match the form they'd shown earlier in their careers - both saw a significant drop in their strike rates after leaving Liverpool.

 

There were still good performances, of the 33 entries in to the Top Scorers from the English players, there were seven 20+ goal seasons - twice from Rooney, and one each from Shearer, Andy Johnson, Darren Bent and James Beattie. Making up the list is midfielder Frank Lampard. The interesting thing there is that the entries from Johnson, Bent and Beattie were exceptions rather than rules. Take Andy Johnson for example - aside from his debut 21 goal Premier League season, his other tallies were 11, 6, 7, 3, and 3. Hardly prolific. Similarly, James Beattie's 23 goals in the 2002-03 season were followed by 14, 3, 1, 10, 2, 7 and 2.

Jermaine Defoe makes it into the Top 10 scorers list on just two occasions. He looks odds on to do so again this season, but it's quite a surprising stat from one of the better English Strikers in the second decade of the Premier League - especially for one known as a poacher.

Scotland fall out of the equation all together, whilst Wales are restricted to just one entry - Craig Bellamy's 13 goals in 2005-06. Ireland fare a little better, largely thanks to Robbie Keane and one good season from Kevin Doyle. When comparing to the first decade, the influence from both inside and outside of Europe has grown in almost all cases.

The Americas are now represented nine times, Africa on 18 occasions and Australia up to three. New entries include Argentina, Spain and Portugal, whilst France and Holland remain the highest non British/Irish countries - with France up to 13 and Holland up to 10. In total, there were 26 nationalities represented in the Top 10 scorers lists from 2003-12

What has happened to the great English Striker?

Number of Foreign Players

Obvious as it may be, the first and foremost reason and shown clearly above, is the number of foreign players is the largest factor.

However, for every Henry, van Nistelrooy and van Persie, there's a Manucho, Boselli and Fuertes. In fact there's been several highly rated prolific scorers arriving in the Premier League with high hopes and expectations, but a relatively small fee. And that's the key point - the price. The market for English players is bloated beyond belief. It's easy to raise the example of Andy Carroll - £35m for half a good season in the Premier League. Michu costs £2m. Not really much to think about there.

For all the sub standard players like those mentioned above, and the likes of Sava, Aloisi, and Mpenza, a home grown player is seeing their progress blocked. Last season saw Grant Holt score 15 Premier League goals - because he was given a chance. Danny Graham managed a decent 12 - just outside the Top 10. This season, Rickie Lambert is doing his best to follow in their footsteps. All English strikers who have scored goals in the top flight after spending most of their careers to date in the lower leagues. Add in Kevin Phillips, Dean Ashton and Marcus Stewart, and there's a case to be made for giving more players from lower leagues a chance.

Why were they in the lower leagues in the first place? Well the influx of foreign players - both talented and not so, squeezes out English players. Looking at Jermaine Defoe again, he was sold from Tottenham the first time around as he was deemed surplus to requirements - Giovanni Dos Santos was one of the replacement forwards signed. Peter Crouch was also shown the door at Aston Villa, Liverpool and later Spurs. Players kept in his position include Marcus Allback, Andriy Voronin, Nabir El Zhar, and an ageing Louis Saha. It's a similar story for several English Strikers.

Another element of the foreign influx is the standard of defender that's been brought in - Stam, Desailly, Bilic, Vidic et al, have all made life tougher for the forwards to score.
To be clear, I'm not against Foreign Players, but wouldn't it be better if only those more talented than English players were brought in? Unfortunately, due to the transfer fees involved when buying British, clubs will continue to look abroad. This isn't restricted just to the second decade (Boogers, Silenzi etc..) but the frequency has certainly increased.

Formations

Another large factor is that of formation. Looking back at the successful Premier League teams of recent years, and how many have actually played two up front? The death of the strike duo originated in Ferguson's quest to conquer Europe. The signing of Juan Sebastien Veron saw a move to a 4-5-1 or 4-4-1-1 formation, as he looked to sure up the midfield. That led to van Nistelrooy largely leading the line as the focal point, with runners from midfield working off him.

And the next major change was with Jose Mourinho's introduction to Chelsea. The 2002-03 season saw a great partnership of Hasselbaink and Gudjohnsen - with Zola coming in regularly. The season after, it was Hasselbaink and Mutu. Under Mourinho, Chelsea moved to a 4-3-3 - with Drogba the lone striker, supported by two wide players - initially Robben and Duff, and later Joe Cole. That formation has remained in place up to the present day - the Champions League Final saw a £50m striker left on the bench as there was only one starting striking role and Drogba was ahead in form. That 4-3-3 also found it's way to Man Utd (Tevez/Ronaldo/Rooney), Arsenal, Spurs and just about all of the top clubs. This season, Liverpool are also playing it, as are City (at times).

So what impact has this had to English Strikers? Well a few. The football upbringing of the average English striker is in a 4-4-2 formation for a start. As a result, they're often lacking experience in leading the line alone. It's also led to many players pushed out wide. In the 2008 title winning season, many will recall Wayne Rooney stuck out on the left wing - resulting in just 12 league goals that season. Similarly, the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Theo Walcott have seen their opportunities in a central role restricted. Sturridge has had to move to Liverpool in an attempt to play through the middle, whilst at the time of writing, it appears to be te sticking point for Walcott signing a new contract at Arsenal. A return to the 4-4-2 of old would see more opportunities for these type of players.

Goal Scoring Midfielders

Tied in with the change in formation, has seen one change in the scoring habits. That of the scoring midfielder. Looking at the Top 10 scorers by season in the first decade of the Premier League, there were seven entries from midfield (four of them were from Matt Le Tissier). Fast forward to the second decade and that increases to 17. Pires, Scholes, Lampard, Gerrard, Dempsey and others have all made the Top 10 goal scorers. This season has seen Wales winger, Gareth Bale do the same.

So whilst the goals are drying up for English strikers (and indeed all strikers), the frequency of the midfielders in the Top 10 scorers list has significantly increased.

The Future

Whilst the change in formation and the price of English footballers remain as they are, it's unlikely that we'll see a return to prominence of the great English goalscorer. There are promising young talents such as Sturridge and Welbeck, but there's far too few of them to suggest a recovery. A quick look at the first choice forwards of each team tells a story.

The dip in quality is best highlighted when looking at the England Squads for major tournaments. Euro 96 saw Shearer (31 goals), Sheringham (16), Fowler (28) and Ferdinand (25). Jump forward to Euro 2012 and Rooney (27), Carroll (4), Welbeck (9) and Defoe (11) were the forward options available to Roy Hodgson. In 1996, Ian Wright and Andy Cole didn't make the squad - both prolific strikers.

100 Goal Club

Just for your viewing pleasure, to finish off, a list of all the players with 100 Premier League goals. Just four of the English strikers in the list are currently active in the Premier League, with midfielders Scholes and Lampard coming to the end of their Premier League careers:

Player Comparison: Rio Ferdinand vs John Terry

Up next in the World Famous Player Comparison series is a slightly controversial one. England defenders and definitely not best friends, Rio Ferdinand and John Terry. Two of the best defenders in Premier League history, this is the first comparison of defenders, and could be the last depending on feedback….

Given the recent disharmony between Terry and the Ferdinands, this may seem a bit on the reactive side, but I’ve had this request on more than one occasion (twice) so thought I’d give it a go. Both are entering the twilight of their careers (Rio has just turned is 34, JT, approaching 32), both have been League winners and Champions League winners. Both have played at one of the biggest clubs in the world for 10 years or more, and for a long time, the two were playing alongside eachother at the heart of the England defence. With that in mind, and the added spice of club and personality clashes/rivalries, they’re ideal candidates to compare.

The Rules

Usually I’m comparing goals and assists, but in this instance the focus is all about the dirty business of stopping them. So when looking at the range and average opponent, it’ll be by goals conceded and clean sheets. The primary focus will be on Premier League stats, but there will be a look at international and cup games. The calculations can be found in the rules and workings page on the top menu, but simply enough, it’s a look at their stats but by the level of opposition.

The time period is from when Ferdinand signed for Manchester United at the start of the 2002-03 season, up until the end of 2011-12 – 10 full seasons. In that time, Terry has played 311 Premier League games to Ferdinand’s 269.

Background

Despite being born and bred in South London, Rio Ferdinand began his Football career in the prestigious West Ham academy. Initially a central midfielder, Rio was taught the art of defending under the tutelage of Tony Carr, and was hailed as the heir to Bobby Moore’s throne for club and country. With his ability on the ball, Ferdinand also played for the West Ham first team in central midfield, wing back and even up front – scoring his first senior goal in just his second substitute appearance, after his debut aged just 17. Seen as talented but unfocused, eyebrows were raised when Leeds United paid £18m for the young defender in November 2000 – both a British Record transfer and also the World Record price for a defender. But Ferdinand excelled under fellow Centre Back David O’Leary and helped a young Leeds team to the Semi Final of the Champions League later that season. Another good season later, and Ferdinand was starting for England in the 2002 World Cup, as they got to the Quarter Finals. His displays for both Leeds and England were enough for Sir Alex Ferguson to pay over £30m – making him once again the most expensive British footballer, and regaining the title of World’s most expensive defender from Lilian Thuram.

John Terry on the other hand, has been a one club man. Despite also training with West Ham as a youngster, the Barking born defender signed for Chelsea at the age of 14 after playing for famous boys club Senrab, along with the likes of Bobby Zamora, Ledley King and JLloyd Samuel. During his early years around the Chelsea first team squad, he saw his chances limited due to Marcel Desailly and Frank Le Boeuf, and subsequently found himself at Nottingham Forest on a short term loan to get first team experience under David Platt. Despite making his Chelsea debut in the 1998-99 season, Terry didn’t become a first team regular until the 2000-01 season, playing 22 league games as Chelsea finished in 6th place. The following season, Terry further cemented his place as a first team regular, playing in 33 of the 38 league games, as Chelsea once again finished in 6th place. Seen as a typical British defender, Terry made a reputation for putting his body on the line for the cause, but it his ability to pass the ball was often overlooked as a result.

Premier League

Clean Sheets

And so on to the hard numbers. First and foremost, the appearances and clean sheets by season:

Both have pretty good records with close to a one in two clean sheet rate. Ferdinand’s appearances have been slightly limited due to injury and an eight month ban for forgetfulness. Over the ten years, Ferdinand has made an average of 27 league appearances per season, and in that time, has kept an average of 12.9 clean sheets per season. In total, he’s kept a clean sheet for every 2.085 games. John Terry’s 311 appearances work out at an average of 31 games per season, with a clean sheet rate of 15.9. So on the face of it, Terry is ahead, with a clean sheet every 1.955 games.

Terry’s high of 25 in Chelsea’s title winning season of 2004-05 dwarfs Ferdinand’s 19 in 2007-08, when United won the total. In fact, Terry has kept 20 clean sheets or more in three of the ten seasons. Surprisingly, neither player has completed a full 38 game season.

So Terry’s ahead on the overall defensive stats, but in reality, both keep a clean sheet every second game – a phenomenal rate over a ten year period. But what of their quality of the opposition? Step this way.

First up (due to age and alphabet) is Ferdinand. A decent 27 clean sheets against the teams that finished in the Top 6, 65 against the Mid table teams and 37 against the teams struggling against relegation. An average ranked opponent of 11.21 over 129 clean sheets, his highest number of clean sheets against the big teams was five, which was achieved in three consecutive seasons between 2005-06 to 2007-08, with Man Utd winning the league in the latter two seasons. His highest average was in 2010-11, with 7.50 average from his eight clean sheets – of which, half were against the Top 6 teams, with Spurs (twice), Arsenal and Man City all being kept out. Tellingly, no clean sheets were kept against the Top 6 in the 2011-12 season as United lost the title on goal difference, with Ferdinand being part of the United team that lost 6-1 at home to Manchester City.

Terry’s best season was by far and away the 2004-05 season. Keeping a whopping 25 clean sheets against an average ranked opponent of 10.12 as Chelsea went on to win the league for the first time in 50 years, breaking, posting the best defensive record in the history of the English top flight. The season after also saw a stellar defensive display from Chelsea, and Terry was partly responsible for 20 clean sheets, including five against the Top 6 teams. Last season however, saw a drop in the number of clean sheets as he posted just 9 during his 31 league appearances. This could be down to a number of things, such as off the field problems, or defensive partners. Long gone are the days of Carvalho, who has been replaced by Luiz and Cahill. As a result, the number of clean sheets have dropped significantly.

So John Terry is more likely to play first and foremost, and he’s just ahead of Rio Ferdinand in terms of games per clean sheet. But……

If we take a closer look at Clean Sheets against the Top 6, taking into account Ferdinand’s appearances. Each player has finished in the Top 6 in each of the ten seasons, meaning there’s a maximum of ten appearances against Top 6 opposition. So here’s the clean sheets and appearances by player versus the best in the league:

John Terry’s clean sheet rate of one every 1.955 games becomes a clean sheet every 2.61 games, compared to Ferdinand’s clean sheet every 2.44 games. So Terry’s more likely to keep clean sheets overall, but Ferdinand did it more against the best in the league. In United’s last title winning season, he kept an impressive four in just six appearances.

Goals Conceded

Moving on to goals conceded. First up is Ferdinand again. Over the 269 Premier League games for United in the last 10 years, he’s let in on average 0.75 goals per game – comfortably under the magical 1 per game target. His best season, being the 2007-08 title win, where he let in only 21 goals in 35 games – 0.6 goals per game. The season before, he played 8 games versus the Top 6 teams, and only conceded 4 goals, whilst in 2010-11, the other Top teams only managed to score twice during his 6 games against. In total, he conceded 70 goals in 66 apearances against the best teams in the league – a number damaged by the 6-1 Manchester Derby.

Moving on to Chelsea’s Captain, on the same comparison, Terry conceded 83 goals in 81 appearances against fellow Top 6 teams – just ahead of Ferdinand’s rate. His best season against the Top 6 was in 2004-05 when just four strikes got past him and his team mates in 9 appearances. His overall goals conceded rate is 0.72 per game – almost identical to his rival’s 0.75. His best season was the phenomenal 2004-05 when just 13 goals were conceded on Terry’s watch – a phenomenal 0.36 goals per game. No wonder they won the league so comfortably.

Discipline

This isn’t taking into account the many off the field issues affecting each player, but a very quick look at the yellow/red card count in their last ten years. It’s fair to say that the records are like Chalk and Cheese in this regard. In just the Premier League games, they’ve shared 5 Red Cards – 4 of which were for Terry. Reds against Spurs (twice), Everton and Man City have cost his team as they managed just one win in the four games. Ferdinand’s one red was in the 4-3 defeat to Blackburn, that saw young up and coming midfielder David Bentley score a hat trick against United. A platform for great things…..

On the yellow cards, it’s pretty much the same story – Terry has 52 to Ferdinand’s 20 in what is in keeping with the general expectation of the players – Terry seen as a British Bulldog, win at all costs type, with Ferdinand seen as the cultured type. In all competitions, for club and country over the 10 years we’re looking at, it’s 31 yellows and 1 red for Ferdinand, and 80 yellows and 5 reds for John Terry, with the last Red costing him a place in the Champions League Final – not that he missed the celebrations.

Goals

One area where there really is no contest is at the other end of the pitch. Whilst Ferdinand scored 7 Manchester United goals in the ten years we’re looking at, John Terry scored a massive 43 in the same period. Whilst it has nothing to do with who is a better defender (Philippe Albert anyone?), it’s certainly an interesting angle, and some could use it when looking at the all round footballers. Terry can point to goals against Roma, Arsenal, Man City and Barcelona in recent years, whilst Ferdinand’s highlights in front of goal would be scoring against Liverpool in back to back seasons.

Champions League

Of course, both players have Champions League medals and both have tasted defeat in the final, so it’s worth comparing their records in Europe – both at a group stage and a knock out stage – where in theory, the opposition are better.

Once again, Terry leads the way with the overall number of clean sheets – posting 39 against Ferdinand’s 36, however, when you take into account the number of games, then Ferdinand has the fewer number of games per clean sheet at 1.94 from 70 appearances compared to Terry’s clean sheets every 2.23 games from his 87 appearances.

Champions League break down:

So in keeping with the Premier League stats, Ferdinand is more likely to keep a clean sheet in the bigger games. Terry has kept a clean sheet for every 1.7 group games in the Champions League, but just one every 3.42 in the knock out stages. Ferdinand on the other hand is pretty consistent – averaging a clean sheet every two games regardless of the stage.

Other big games

Both players have played in three league cup finals. Ferdinand has two medals, keeping clean sheets in two games, and conceding two goals in the three games, whilst Terry’s three finals have seen five goals conceded, and one win. Moving on to the FA Cup, Ferdinand has played in two FA Cup finals – keeping a clean sheet before losing on penalties to Arsenal in 2005, and the equally thrilling 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in 2007. Surprisingly, after ten years at Old Trafford, he doesn’t have an FA Cup winners medal (he was suspended when Millwall were beaten in 2004). Terry on the other hand has four winners medals in that time (to add to his 99-00 one), keeping clean sheets against Portsmouth (2008) and Man Utd in the aforementioned snorefest. Two 2-1 victories over both Merseyside clubs completed the set. So Ferdinand has three clean sheets in five domestic Cup Finals to Terry’s two in seven.

England

So we’ve established that both are great defenders in their own right, but how we’re they together, and did they fair better with or without each other for England? Ferdinand won the first of his 81 caps in 1997 as a teenager, and even made it to the World Cup the following year as a non playing squad member. Terry would have to wait another five seasons for his first cap, and up until his recent international retirement, made 78 appearances for the Three Lions.

In the last ten years, Ferdinand’s made 59 appearances to Terry’s 72 – playing alongside eachother on 34 occasions:

In terms of clean sheets, there wasn’t really much difference. Together they kept a clean sheet every 2.20 games, Ferdinand without Terry was 2.27 and Terry without Ferdinand was 2.17 – a slight edge to Terry. In terms of goals conceded, together they let in 0.82 goals per game, with Ferdinand keeping a slightly better 0.8 conceded without Terry and Terry keeping a consistent 0.82.

Once again, there’s not a great deal in it. In terms of highlights, Terry’s clean sheet against Italy in Euro 2012, compares with Ferdinand’s clean sheet against Argentina in the 2002 World Cup. In terms of goals, it’s a bit closer than their club appearances, with Ferdinand scoring three goals for England compared to Terry’s six. Interestingly though, all of Ferdinand’s have been in competitive matches, with five of Terry’s six being in friendlies (including Brazil and Germany).

The Makelele Factor

It’s hard to put an exact impact to the Chelsea clean sheets that John Terry kept, but from 2003-04 to 2007-08 Claude Makelele played the holding midfield role so well that it was renamed the Makelele role. During that time, John Terry kept 91 of his 159 clean sheets, keeping 68 in the five seasons without him. Ferdinand meanwhile had Roy Keane for his first three seasons at the club with his best defensive performances coming after the departure of the influential skipper. And it’s fair to say that he wasn’t quite as defensively disciplined as Makelele.

Conclusion

Shock Horror, I’m going to declare this one a draw. Terry was slightly more likely to keep a clean sheet, but Ferdinand was slightly more likely to do so against the best opponents. In the big games, Ferdinand had the edge in terms of both clean sheets and goals conceded (such as domestic Cup Finals and European knock out games) but Terry was much more likely to trouble the opposition by scoring. Looking at their England records, it was near identical with and without each other. There was only ever going to be one conclusion based on the stats.

So despite your view of each player as a person, no one can honestly say that they haven’t both been excellent players – perhaps two of the best in English history. Both are coming to the end of their careers now, but for those ten years, there are very few who can compare.

Cheers,

Liam