Buy, Sell, Hold? Premier League Forecast - Round 21

Arsenal improved from last season? Nope. Man Utd destined to finish outside the Top 4? Unlikely. In what is the first ever guest post, Michael Geaghan makes his Premier League predictions based on the season so far and the results in the remaining corresponding fixtures from last season.....

Man City to win the league. Arsenal guaranteed top 4. Man Utd’s league season already finished. Palace to get relegated. Newcastle top half. Maybe, Maybe not.

They say a league only tells the truth at the end of the season. We saw a glimpse of the reality behind this at the midway point in the current season, where the only change in the top 4 was Everton replacing Man Utd in the coveted Champions League positions, even though the talk for the first 15/16 games of the season was whether Liverpool could mount a challenge on the league title only to finish the halfway point in 5^th and 6 points behind the leaders.

Every fan has their own memories of their own personal experience of luck at the timing of playing teams, injuries, after a midweek game, whilst the opposition are on a good run, a bad run, the same applying for their team. Starting games with confidence has a huge effect on the outcome of results, but the simplicity is that all teams play each team home and away. At the start of each season each manager will identify where they are going to pick up points, and at the same time expectations are managed post games as to whether their teams have ‘dropped points’ or gained bonus unexpected points.

Every week I overwrite the previous season’s results with the current season’s – for the corresponding fixtures. For example, Arsenal are generally touted as the ‘most improved team of the season so far’. That isn’t actually the case. Although they were top of the league at the halfway point and remain there as I write, they are in fact one point worse off than the same games last season. We all remember, I certainly do as a spurs fan, the incredible run that Arsenal went on towards the end of the season that has slightly skewed the figures, but it does show that they have now consistently been a good team for quite some time. The season finishing and restarting just fell at the wrong time as the last 12 months have definitely showed champion consistency and quality, just not in the same season...so far anyway. This also points towards the basis for this, in looking at the premier league table now and as a forecast for the final positions. If the results are as similar as last season, as has been the case so far, they could even find themselves outside of the top four.

After 21 games, as mentioned above, Arsenal are one point worse off than the same games played last season. I mentioned I am a spurs fan, they are actually one point better off. Clearly though, Arsenal are entering the final 17 games of the season with confidence and with a very different pressure hanging over their shoulders. The games they struggled in last season are the games they have yet to play.

I think a fair argument is that Man City are the best footballing team in the league at the moment and they have the strongest squad, they are though competing on four fronts. they are brutal in front of goal regardless of who the opposition is. The recent game at Newcastle goes to show though that they can get beat, they didn’t, a crazy refereeing decisions helped make sure they got all three points on the day, but they are not indestructible. Their start of season questionable away form appears to have been eradicated. They have already accumulated a staggering 16 points more than in the same games last season. Plus they have achieved this with a little more panache than last season, 28 goals more than the correlating games last season (see goals comparison in the table below). With the bookies end of season points tally spread for City currently set at 82.5-84 I would certainly be buying that, as they are on target for around 88 points. Inheriting last seasons results to complete the league forecast will result in them winning every home game. At home they only have Chelsea, of the so called ‘big teams’, to entertain at the Etihad and so that is not an unachievable target. Away from Manchester they inherit results from last season where they picked up only 14 points (from a possible 24) from the remaining 8 games they have left on the road.

At the bottom of the league, the promoted teams within this system inherit the respective relegated team from last season - Cardiff assume Wigan’s results, Hull assume Reading’s and Palace assume QPR’s. This only really stands due to the team staying in the premier league retaining their results and so implying the result against the promoted teams. The games played against each other is the obvious draw back in this system.

Of the promoted teams though interestingly, and at the same time worryingly for Cardiff and Palace, is that on a like for like comparison Cardiff have accumulated exactly the same amount of points as Wigan had over the same games last season and Palace are 1 point worse off - and that’s against a miserable return of only 25 points that QPR managed to get last season. It’s been quite obvious to see that Hull have certainly done themselves proud in the first half of the season and are well on their way to achieving the 40 points target. On that note I think it may be as low as a good goal difference on 36 points needed to stay in the division this season.

Man Utd at the top end of the division finished the league 11 points better off than second placed City. This means that not only are they finding it tougher this season, but they are inheriting good points emphasising how many points they have dropped compared to last season. A staggering 13 points worse off than last season, by far the largest difference in points versus the previous season. They are though Man Utd, and despite what everyone says, they have the same players as last year and can still very easily go and beat any other team in the league. They are still on target for 76 points, a target that is still very achievable, as they have definitely turned the corner in my view. I think they are out of the title race, but by no means are out for the race for the top four.

West Ham, which I am sure most of you would have noticed, have also been shedding points. They currently sit in the relegation zone having dropped 10 points versus the same games played last season.

Aside from Man City’s increase in fortunes by the 10 points mentioned earlier, Southampton are 11 points better off, and Liverpool close behind with a better return to the tune of 9 points.

See below the forecast league table after 38 games:

How to interpret this?

Stats are stat, numbers are numbers, so long as the assumptions are clear and understood then anyone can interpret the numbers as they wish. For me though the main advantages are vs. the Spreads being offered by bookies as to the final points tally for each individual team. You may be surprised at how some of them read and below is a brief summary comment on each team and the spreads currently being offered as at 15^th January 2014. This is by no means any solicitation to encourage anyone to place any bets, or to entice or act as advice in placing any bets, it is shown purely as food for thought based along the lines of the article and along side the fact that the league only tells the truth after all games have been completed.

The format of the note will be:

Current league position: Team Name: Forecast points using my assumptions: Spread being offered: Bet Signal (Buy/Sell/hold/Other, for other see the comment below). If the forecast points and the spread are to close and so no real difference ‘Hold’ will be the call. It is interesting how similar they are and so I only consider the real opportunities in the spreads offered as worth buying or selling.

1: Arsenal: 72: 79-80.5: Other.

I would avoid betting on Arsenal either way. The bookies have them finishing 3^rd but as to the points I think they will pick up more than the forecast indicated 72. They dropped points against Swansea, Fulham, Man City and Man Utd at home, whom they are yet to play and away from home dropped points against Stoke, Chelsea, Everton, Tottenham & Southampton. As you glance over the results some are realistic and will happen, I don’t think all will though and so feel a better return than the forecasted 72 points will be achieved, just not enough to want to buy or sell the spread either way from the bookie.

2: Man City: 88: 82.5-84: Buy

As already spoken about I can see City smashing the 84 points being offered by the bookies.

3: Chelsea: 80: 79.5-81: Hold

I think that if you held a gun to my head I would be buying the points as 81. At home only dropping points against Spurs and Man Utd to come, do not give a huge amount of room to deter from last season results to come. Away from home is a different kettle of fish. Of the games remaining they dropped points at Swansea, Palace (well QPR back then), Liverpool, City & West Brom, and I can’t see them dropping points for what would effectively be every other away game. They will drop points but not at the rate they did. The forecast inheriting all these dropped points is bang in the middle of the odds spread being offered and so I would consider a very prudent forecast and buy would be the spread as I think more probability they will pick up more than the forecasted points than they will drop them.

4: Liverpool: 70: 73-74.5: Hold (due to commentary below)

They are a bit of a wild card this season, mainly because of the little genius from Uruguay. Love him or hate him, the guy is incredible. They are yet to host Chelsea, Arsenal, City and Spurs at home (probably shouldn’t include spurs as a possible threat after the 5-0 mauling at the lane a few weeks back). Of those teams they only got full points against spurs last season and so there is a lot of scope for their points tally to improve, coupled with getting beat by Villa at home. Liverpool do not have what would be considered as really tough games away from home apart from Man Utd, for which they are not ‘expected’ to get three points.

5: Everton: 66: 67.5-69: Sell

I think the big difference in the second half of the season will come from the home wins against Man Utd and Man City, which I can’t see them getting full points from again. Away from home results I can see staying fairly consistent with last season, games to play away from home = 9, those games last season saw them win 1, lose 4 and draw 4.

6: Tottenham: 73: 68.5-70:  Buy

I promise this is unbiased. I think the home games will return a similar amount of points, Man City and Arsenal are yet to play at White Hart Lane from which Spurs got full points from last season, but also Fulham and Cardiff (Wigan last season) for which they lost both games. The two toughest away games they have are at Liverpool and Chelsea, they only gained 1 point from the same games last season so do not have a lot of points to replace. Their away from, of which I am about to curse, has so far been good.

7: Man Utd: 76: 69-70.5: Buy

They will have a better second half of the season than they did the first. Sure in the second half of the season so far they dropped all three points at home against Spurs, but they did last season, so was in the numbers as an assumed result.

8: Newcastle: 47: 53.5-55: Sell

My nephew won’t be happy as an avid Newcastle fan but the points spread offered is some way above where the forecast is plotting them. The games they have remaining didn’t yield a lot of points for them last year. The forecast has them getting less than a point per game for the rest of the season. I don’t think they will finish as low as 47 but would still be selling the points tally being offered.

9: Southampton: 52: 52.5-54: Hold

They are a little hit and miss again following the great start to the season. Injuries, suspensions and fatigue have set in. I don’t see a big indicator away from the spread being offered to call either way, and with the concerns at the club surrounding who will be in-charge tomorrow let alone at the end of the season, i would avoid placing any money on Southampton either way.

10: Swansea: 44: 42.5-44: Hold

Any team can turn up when you play Swansea, they can be world beaters on any given day. They are hit and miss though and with Europe about to kick off again with a two leg Napoli distraction I think the point’s tally spread is in line with the forecast.

11: Hull: 35: 39-40.5: Hold

The forecast numbers using my assumptions have been skewed due to inheriting Reading’s results from last season, so I am avoiding this. I think they will stay up, they are spending money. All they need to do now is sort out the name debate and for what its worth I think the name should stay Hull City AFC. This is England, we are traditionalists, we do not have franchise football, and we don’t want it. Dr Allam, you have been great at Hull so far, leave it as Hull City AFC and concentrate your time, legal and marketing money on improving Hull City AFC and the local area. By all means give a name to something you have given birth to or created from nothing, but don’t change the name of a 110 year old club.

12: Aston Villa: 40: 39.5-40: Hold

The bookies have them finishing as the stats show. It is a shame really as I thought they had put in the hard graft last season and had turned the corner, that they were going to start pushing up the league a little with a little more consistency. They seem to have sizzled out a bit. They gave the Gooners a good run for their money the other night, but need a lot more consistency towards the back end of the season.

13: Stoke: 45: 39.5-41: Buy

A top half finish is in the sights of Stoke.  A change of manager hasn’t really had a huge change in fortunes, but they are showing the fight they have had since joining the premier league. So silly dropped points at home are built into the numbers from last seasons home loss against West Ham, and as a comparison only picked up 10 points away from home from the 9 away games, of which most are against bottom half opposition and I think they will better that in the latter stages of this season.

14: West Brom: 39: 39.5-41: Hold

They were a good solid outfit last season and have already dropped an additional 10 points from the 21 same games last season. At home they seemed to beat the teams they shouldn’t and lose to the teams they should, well that’s how the forecast looks, I can see them getting 6 points at home against Liverpool and Chelsea, but at the same time can see them getting more points than the zero obtained at home against stoke, Cardiff and Fulham last season. There is not real indication either side from the spread set at the bookies so avoiding this one.

15: West Ham: 39: 36-37.5: Buy

They wont get relegated. I think they are too good. They just need the ‘senior’ player to stop acting like an impetuous 17 year old. You simply can’t have your leader getting sent off so needlessly. It could be a blessing in disguise as it will give others a chance, and watching the game at Cardiff they definitely showed a lot more togetherness than I have seen (away from White Hart Lane of course where they have had a great amount of joy from this season). To reach the 39 forecasted points they only need to better 4 points from the remaining 8 away games and 15 from the 27 points available from home games.

16: Norwich: 42: 36.5-38: Buy

They have five very winnable games to come at home, one they could possibly win and three I can’t see them getting anything from of which last season they gained 17 points. This included beating Arsenal though and so I think the 17 points is the top end of what they will achieve from the remaining games. Away from home they only picked up 5 points from the equivalent 24 points available last season. With Cardiff, Swansea, Villa, Fulham, West Ham & Southampton on the away day calendar equally hit and miss they could see them selves getting the forecast 42 points and more importantly safety.

17: Fulham: 44: 34.5-36: Buy

The remaining fixtures do contain three good results they achieved away from home last season, 3 points at Spurs, Swansea and West Brom. I don’t see them achieving three away wins again but there is certainly enough games in their favour to gain more than the suggested 17 points the bookies are suggesting are at the top end of what they can achieve in the remainder of the season. I don’t think the 44 forecast will be achieved in full but they won’t be far off.

18: Cardiff: 36: 34-35.5: Hold

It’s been tough, especially when compared to their neighbours in Swansea.  Whilst I have no doubt Ole has a good understanding of the Premier League they do not look like picking up more points than the 36 forecasted to make.  Also considering the forecast contains away wins at Spurs, Southampton and West Brom I think the top end of the points Cardiff will achieve is already in the numbers. I hope the optimism of the club and the fans remain and that the forecast is wrong as I like having two teams of the county of Wales in the Premier League. If you haven’t been to Cardiff to watch sport go, it is home to, what I think is one of the greatest sporting venues, the millennium stadium and it is a great host city for most events.

19: Crystal Palace: 24: 30.5-32: Hold

The numbers say to sell, but realistically they have inherited terrible results from QPR, albeit that they are worse off season on season than the results they were skewed by the terrible results early on in the season. Tony Pulis has already forced through a change in fortunes but I don’t think they have enough quality or confidence to gain more than another 19ish points I think will be needed to stay up. It is all well drawing but they need some wins to gain points, and prevent others from getting those points and converting the draws to wins is going to be tough.

20: Sunderland: 36: 34.5-36: Hold

I think they will be on the cusp of relegation with 36 points. The forecast already includes them picking up 16 points from the 9 home games remaining, only 4 away from home though. They have some winnable games at home remaining that saw them drop points in last season, notably Swansea, Palace, Stoke, Southampton and West Brom, not winning any of the mentioned games. If they stay up it is going to have to be from home, away from home they have the hardest games to come: Arsenal, Newcastle, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Man City, only away at Norwich is a game Gus is planning on taking a lot from. The derby at St James' could be as crucial in the run in as it was last season.

To Conclude as at 15^th January 2014 the bets I would personally consider placing versus the final league points spead being offered are:

Buy:

Man City @ 84, Man Utd @ 70.5, Spurs @ 70, Stoke @ 41, Norwich @ 38, Fulham @ 36, West Ham @ 37.5

Sell:

Everton @ 67.5, Newcastle @ 53.5

How it works, The Assumptions.
We assume the previous season’s results as the starting point for the current season.

We then overwrite the previous result with the current seasons result as the game is played.

The league table is then adjusted to reflect the forecast finish for each team after 38 games.

Each promoted team inherits the respective relegated team, for the season 2013/14 the changes are as follows. Agreed this is the largest assumption but one would estimate that the premier league teams should be stronger and so the results of the teams remaining in the division start with the previous results. Quite appropriately the promoted sides are the wildcards in the top division for the first season.

Cardiff as the champions of the Championship inherit the previous seasons results of 18^th positioned Wigan

Hull as the Championship runner up inherit the previous seasons results of 19^th positioned Reading

Crystal Palace as the promoted team via the playoffs inherit the previous seasons results of bottom of the table QPR

Big Games, Lamela and other Fellas - The Premier League Returns

The Premier League is back! Not quite with the bang we were hoping, but with plenty of new signings and a set of Sunday Fixtures that may well live up to their 'Super' billing, that looks set to change. I'll have a look at a few of the new faces, and put my neck on the line to suggest where you should put your money on the latest Premier League odds this weekend......

New Signings
And it's with a few of those new signings that we'll start with. At the time of writing, it looks all but confirmed that Erik Lamela will be joining Spurs as a replacement for the Madrid bound Gareth Bale, and whilst there's no doubt that the Welshman will be a huge miss for the North London outfit, the fans should be in for a treat with the tricky Argentinian.

One of the main aims of this site is to attempt to track who are the big game players - by looking at the level of opposition that they score against. Whilst Bale scored a whopping 21 League goals for Spurs last season, to Lamela's 15, it is the incoming player that did it most against the Top 6 teams in the league. Despite Roma  finishing 6th, the 21 year old scored five times against Serie A's best to Bale's four in the Premier League. Three goals were scored against Udinese (5th) over the two games, and a brace against third place AC Milan saw the winger/number 10 thrive in high pressure games. And just outside the Top 6 in 7th place was Roma's fierce rivals, Lazio, whom also conceded to Lamela. Chuck in a brace of assists against 2nd placed Napoli and you have proof of a big game temperament indeed.

Another deeper lying player who joined a London club was Andre Schurrle who somewhat surprisingly started the game away at Man Utd. Whilst he's a good prospect at 22, looking at his scoring performances against the Top teams in the Bundesliga last season (Below is Top 5 as it's an 18 team league), he was quite unlikely to worry the Champions defence.

Two other big name signings to join the Premier League in the summer were Spanish duo Alvaro Negredo and Roberto Soldado. Both had excellent scoring records against the Top Teams in Spain. The new Man City striker Negrado scored 5 goals against the top teams despite Sevilla finishing in 9th, with 4 strikes against Valencia (in a 4-3 win) and a goal against Barcelona. Soldado went one better with 6 goals against the big teams, with Pellegrini's Malaga, Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid the victims.

The Big Games
And so onto this weekend's games. Whilst league positions don't really mean an awful lot at this stage of the season, it's fair to say that Liverpool vs Man Utd and Arsenal vs Spurs are massive games - both derbies of sorts.

So who are the big game players that thrive in these games? Based on last season, Robin van Persie and Luis Suarez scored the most goals against the Top 6 with six strikes each. Unfortunately for Liverpool, the controversial Uruguayan isn't available for this match. But all is not lost. Daniel Sturridge is in great form with 4 goals in 3 appearances this season, and looking at his 2012-13 stats, he managed 3 goals against the Top 6 despite only signing for the Reds in January - with goals against former clubs Chelsea (h) and Man City (a) as well as this weekend's opponents (also away). With that kind of form, the 6-1 first goal scorer bet looks a decent price and if you're feeling brave, he's at 13-1 to score twice. For those of you that fancy the away team, then RvP is at 4-1 for first or last goal.

Elsewhere, Gerrard had three goals against the Top 6 last season, one in the corresponding fixture, as well as strikes against City and Spurs, whilst Rooney topped the charts against Top 6 teams in the 2011-12 with 7 goals.

In the North London derby, Theo Walcott had a decent knack of doing it in the big games. And last season was no different, with goals against United, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Spurs. In fact it was only Man City in the Top 7 that kept him out. At 7-1 for first goal scorer the England winger could make it four seasons in row against Spurs.

For Spurs, if Lamela isn't available then there isn't a great deal of big game scorers to bet on. Last season, Adebayor only scored 5 league goals, but 3 were against the best teams. He's unlikely to play, as is Bale (4 goals) and their other big game scorer last season was Clint Dempsey (also 4 goals) who has since departed the Premier League. For an outside bet, Jan Vertonghen scored three times against Man Utd and Liverpool. He's available at 22-1 for first scorer or 15/2 at any time. If not, then it's Soldado at 7-1 that may be their best hope.

Good luck!

Cheers,

Liam

Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes

This isn't a David Bowie tribute (though I am a fan) no, this is a look at the changing landscape of a Premier League football club in terms of playing staff.....

Out of part boredom and part curiosity (mainly boredom) I started wondering how much teams have changed over the last 5 years. Why 5 years? Well that seems a reasonable amount of time to expect a player to stay at a club. How to measure it? I could have taken the squad as a whole, but players get loaned out quite reguarly, so decided the best way to monitor the changing team line ups would be to take the match day 18 at the same time of the season across the last five years. In this instance, I've tried to take the end of February/start of March as it allows for January signings to settle in.

What's it gonna tell us? I started putting the stats together with the prediction that consistency would result in relative success - for example, Wigan wouldn't expect to be winning the league, but staying up each season can be seen as a success, given the resources available. However, I'm writing this before I've analysed the numbers, so we'll see how accurate this hypothesis is.

Parameters:

• Last 5 seasons from 2009-2013, end Feb/start March
• The matchday 16 have been taken into account
• Current Premier League Clubs only - includes Football League line ups where applicable

Stats:

First up, the team stats. The first measurement is the number of new players in the matchday squad this season:

QPR	11
Aston Villa	9
West Ham	9
Fulham	8
Norwich	8
Swansea	8
Reading	7
Southampton	7
Newcastle	6
Sunderland	6
Chelsea	5
Everton	5
Stoke	5
Tottenham	5
Arsenal	4
Liverpool	4
Man City	4
Wigan	4
West Brom	2
Man Utd	1

The most obvious check would be to look at the team with the most new players in compared to the team with the least. QPR, with 11 new faces in their squad are currently one of the favourites to go down. Aston Villa with the next highest number of new faces are fighting relegation, as are Norwich (8), Reading (7) and Southampton (7). At the other end of the table, Man Utd who are walking to the title, only had one new player in their matchday squad in their 2-0 win over QPR - Robin van Persie, much to the sorrow of Arsenal fans, and a player with 8 years of Premier League experience. Up next are West Brom with just two new players (Yacob and Lukaku), a club that have surprised many. On four new players are Top Four chasing Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City - along with a Wigan team that many tipped for relegation, but who are still in the fight.

So it's easy to point to conclude that the fewer new faces, leads to greater consistency - not a massive revelation. There are of course outliers - West Ham as a newly promoted club also had 9 new face, but are performing relatively well in their first season back. Swansea, in the notorious difficult second season, have made 8 changes as Michael Laudrup looked to put his own stamp on the team. And it's worked a treat as they're comfortably in the Top half and have a League Cup trophy for good measure. One of the 8 include Starman Michu, who's scored 17 league goals at the time of writing.

So what about longevity? Well it's a similar tale. When looking at the players in the match day squad five seasons ago compared to the same weekend this season, it'll surprise precisely no one that it's the same two teams at either end. Man Utd had a whopping 10 players in their matchday squad against Newcastle five years aga, and that's excluding Paul Scholes. Impressive stuff. QPR on the other hand have just one player left from their game against Barnsley in 2009 - 3rd choice goalkeeper Radek Cerny. Norwich City have just one player from five years ago, which is understandable when you consider that their last five years includes a spell in League One - Irish playmaker Wes Hoolahan. Also on one player from five seasons ago are Sunderland - currently one point above relegation at the time of writing.

Behind Man Utd with the most players still active are Chelsea, Everton, Newcastle, Swansea and Arsenal - all with at least 6 players still at the club today. All of which are enjoying decent seasons, with perhaps the exclusion of Newcastle who are currently under pressure.

Each team had at least five players from 2011, and Fulham had the lowest with 9 from last season.

In terms of player consistency, somewhat surprisingly there's only 17 players that have been in the starting line up of the same team over the 5 seasons. It's not a perfect measurement of consistency as players can be injured or rested before Champions League games  but it's still an impressive achievement. Less surprising are the names of some of them. Frank Lampard may have been in and out of fashion with different managers, but makes the list despite being in his golden years. As does the not so young American Tim Howard - forging a good career at Everton after not making the grade at Man Utd, which leads neatly onto another player that left Old Trafford for first team football - Ryan "he's not that sort of player" Shawcross. Leighton Baines joins his goalkeeper in the list as do fellow Merseyside heroes Jamie Carragher and Pepe Reina.

Perhaps more impressively is the fact that there's several players that have gone through the leagues and are still in the team every season. Swansea's Dyer, Williams and Rangel underline why the club have that unusual quality of an easily identifiable playing style/culture. Southampton's Lallana has the claim to fame of playing across 3 divisions, Reading have Jimmy Kebe and Newcastle have Argentinian pair Sideshow Coloccini and Gutierrez - all having played in the Championship. Making up the list are Schwarzer, Figueroa, Zabaleta and Evra (three more full backs along with Baines and Rangel). Interestingly, there's no strikers in the list.

The interactive table below allows you to look at the Match Day squads for each current Premier League Teams going back the last five seasons.

Learn About Tableau

And for those of you that ended up on this page whilst searching for David Bowie, I've included 9 of his song titles, but sadly couldn't work in Modern Love, China Girl, or Space Oddity.

Player Comparison: Ferdinand vs Terry vs Carragher

On the back of Jamie Carragher's retirement announcement last week, I thought I'd revisit the Ferdinand vs Terry player Comparison, and see how the Liverpool hero compares to his peers:

At the time of writing, Jamie Carragher has played 724 games for the Anfield Giants, and if you were to ask most fans of Liverpool who they'd have rather had in their team out of him, Ferdinand, and Terry they'd say Carragher, and most wouldn't even give it a second's thought. Certainly the Liverpool fans I know at least.

So statistically, how did he compare? When looking at the Ferdinand vs Terry defensive stats, there wasn't much in it - Terry was more likely to keep a clean sheet, but Ferdinand was more likely to do it against better opposition. Comparing Carragher to the two multiple title winning defenders isn't going to be completely fair given the quality of the teams the other two have played with - certainly the final league positions, but I thought it might be interesting nonetheless. This will be a shorter one that usual as most two thirds have been covered here.

Premier League

First up is the simple clean sheets against appearances. Terry leads the way in both the number of clean sheets (159) and the rate of clean sheets with one every 1.96. Unsurprisingly Ferdinand has the next best rate as you'd expect from five title winning seasons. However, when looking at Carragher, he actually kept more clean sheets than Ferdinand with 144, and like John Terry, has managed to keep over twenty clean sheets on more than three seasons - a phenomenal achievement.

And like Terry, Carragher kept at least ten clean sheets eight of the last ten seasons, compared to Ferdinands. Take into account Liverpool's average league ranking was 4.7 in that time - with a low of 8th last season. Ferdinand's Man Utd have an average ranking of 1.6 in the same ten year period, and Terry's Chelsea is 2.4.

Moving on to the range of opposition, this looks at clean sheets kept against the Bottom 6, Middle 8 and Top 6 teams:

Ferdinand leads the way with the rate of clean sheets against the Top 6 teams in the Premier League with one every 2.44 games, compared to Terry's 2.61 and Carragher's 3.13, though the Liverpool man has achieved two more clean sheets against the Top 6 teams than his Chelsea conterpart.

So whilst Carragher is behind his peers in the games per clean sheet rate, his 2.26 is certainly impressive, although the rate against the Top 6 isn't quite on the same level as the other two - reflected in Liverpool's league positions in the ten years.

It's a similar story on the goals conceded table:

All three have conceded less than a goal a game over the ten years, though the rate drops when taking into account the Top 6 opponents for all three players. 

Champions League

For new readers, the main aim of this site is to identify the Big Game players, and keeping with that theme, the biggest games in club football are in the European Champions League.

Onto the stats - All three players have won the Champions League Trophy and all have suffered defeat in the final. So how do they compare in the big tournament:

Clean Sheets

Conceded

Carragher has played in 10 qualifying games - keeping 6 clean sheets, and conceding just 4 goals as Liverpool safely made it through in the five seasons needed. Moving onto the group stage, where the games are lower pressure and the opponents are in general weaker, Carragher has a decent 16 clean sheets in 36 games - a lower rate than Ferdinand and Carragher, but still a decent return. The big games however can be measured in the knock out games.

Whilst Ferdinand is the clear winner with a clean sheet every two games in the knock out stages of the Champions League, Carragher actually has a much better record than his Chelsea rival - keeping a very decent clean sheet for every 2.77 games, compared to Terry's 3.4 games. In terms of goals conceded, once again it's Ferdinand that has the lowest number per game, whilst Carragher's is just worse than Terry's with 1.1 each (1.07 to 1.12).

So on the big European Stage, Ferdinand is king, but Carragher out performs Terry in terms of clean sheets.

Other

On the Ferdinand vs Terry piece, I looked at Goals scored as a measure. I think it's fair to say that's probably not necessary for Carragher!

However, another measure was the defensive stats in domestic cup finals - another measure of big game players. Whilst Ferdinand has three clean sheets for five domestic cup finals to Terry's two in seven, Carragher's appearances have seen one clean sheet (against Man United) in the League Cup and the 2006 FA Cup Final saw im concede three goals against West Ham (one of which he scored). He does of course have winners medals for the 2001 FA Cup and League Cups as part of their Cup treble - none of which contained clean sheets.

Conclusion

I'll leave this one up to the reader. The stats of course only tell half the story but they're interesting nonetheless. Many would argue that Carragher's best game for the club was in the 2005 Champions League Final - but statistically, they let in three goals.

All three have been outstanding for their clubs in the 10 year period from 2002-03 to 2011-12, and it's unlikely the fans of each club would swap for another.

Big Game Youth Systems

In the continued quest to understand what makes a big game player, I thought I’d look into the part that youth teams play in a player’s big game temperament, or more precisely, which Youth Teams are responsible for the big game players, or in fact just a steady flow of good players. I’ll be looking at World Players of the Year, Golden Ball winners and a few other bits and pieces. As always, comments and suggestions are welcome.

Rules

For the sake of consistency, if the player has been at two youth academies, I’ll use the club that they made their professional debut with. So whilst Barcelona’s famed La Masia Academy helped produce Piqué and Fabregas, they finished their youth team education with Manchester United and Arsenal, respectively.

Each category is as per the official FIFA lists.

World Player of the Year

First things first, some lists. The first is the Worlds best players from 1991 onwards, complete with their youth team. Why 1991? Because surprisingly, that’s when the award began. From 2009 onwards, the award merged with the Ballon d’Or to become one global award. To widen the data a bit further and because there’s not always a lot in it, I’ve taken the Top three players for each year.
So is there an outstanding Youth Team that produces more World Class players (and that’s a pretty safe use of the phrase) than the others? Well yes and no. If you take Ronaldo as an example, he won the award three times and finished in the top 3 on another two occasions, meaning five entries for Brazilian club Cruzeiro. So to avoid duplication, each player is only allowed one entry. When that’s taken into account, there’s not really a run away winner.

In fact, only three clubs have had more than one representative from their youth team to finish in the top three players in the World:

1. Barcelona – Lionel Messi (1st in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2nd in 2007, 2008) Andres Iniesta (2nd in 2010), Xavi (3rd in 2009, 2010, 2011)
2. Sporting Lisbon – Luis Figo (1st in 2001, 2nd in 2000), Cristiano Ronaldo (1st in 2008, 2nd in 2009, 2011, 3rd in 2007)
3. Ajax – Dennis Bergkamp (3rd in 1993, 1997), Marco van Basten (1st in 1992)

It’s not a massive surprise that those three clubs are where they are. A large chunk of the current Barcelona squad have at one time been graduates of the famous youth system. Aside from the trio above, you could point to Pedro, Sergio Busquets, Victor Valdes, Puyol as well as those that left before returning – Fabregas, Alba and Pique. There’s also players that went elsewhere like Mikel Arteta, Bojan Krkic, Thiago Motta, Oriel Romeu and Giovanni Dos Santos. Going back further than that and the list goes on – Pep Guardiola anyone? It’s impressive.

Sporting Lisbon aren’t exactly slouches either. Aside from the lads above, there’s Paolo Futre, Simao, Nani, and many others. Though they can’t compete with Ajax. The team that won the 1995 Champions League contained 11 youth team graduates from a match day squad of 16. And that’s just one batch. Add in the 60s-70s graduates and it’s easy to understand why they have a reputation of being the best in the World.

Other than that, there’s 28 other clubs that have produced one of the best three players in the last 22 years, ranging from AC Milan (Maldini) to West Ham United (Frank Lampard Jr).

European Footballer of the Year

So applying the same logic, I thought I’d have a look at the European Player of the Year awards (Ballon d’Or). This award goes back to 1956, giving us a wider base to look at. Up untol 1995, it was European Player only. From then onwards, it was changed to players playing in Europe, regardless of their nationality. There’s been 6 South American winners of it, if you exclude Alfredo Di Stefano who was apparently Spanish when he won it in 1957. As mentioned above, the award merged with the World Player of the Year awards in 2010, so the below data is 1956-2009.

Does it offer us a better of view of the best Youth Systems for producing big game players? Well the greater pool of players (Top 3 and sometimes 4 players if level on points) numbers at 164, giving a greater scope. Surprisingly, there’s only 13 teams that have produced more than one player to feature in the Ballon d’Or awards:

The same three that featured on the earlier list are all present, though Barca lose one player, whilst Sporting gain another, in Paulo Futre. Ajax are the single most successful youth system on this measurement with five legends of the game, and that’s with the surprising omissions of Kluivert, Davids, and Seedorf from the lists. In terms of countries, both Spain and England have three clubs represented. There’s no suprise of the three English clubs, just of the players missing.

A couple of points of note. Firstly, Raul is down as a Real Madrid youth product but actually spent a number of years on the books of Atletico Madrid. Ouch. Secondly, Luis Suarez from the Deportivo youth team isn’t the current Liverpool striker (his youth team was Nacional), but rather Barcelona, Spain and Inter Milan legend Luis Suarez Miramontes.

South American Footballer of the Year

Like the European equivalent, this award has been running for longer than the World Player of the year, dating back to 1971 when Brazil legend Tostao picked up the first award whilst playing for Cruzeiro (his youth team was America MG). In all, there’s been 130 players to finish in the Top 3 positions, from 54 different Youth Academies. Unlike the European award, there’s actually quite a lot of repeat achievers, meaning that I’ve restricted it to teams that have produced three players or more.
The award was initially for any player from South America (Mario Kempes won it whilst playing for Valencia), but after 1986, it was restricted to those players playing their football in South America and Mexico.

And so to the list:

River Plate do well – appearing on both lists, and contributing a whopping eight players to the European or South American player of the year awards. And it’s easy to see why with some of the names listed above. When you also think that they also produced Pablo Aimar, Claudio Caniggia, Gonzalo Higuain and many others, it’s easy to understand why they’re the best represented club in the lists above, but it also makes it hard to understand how they were recently relegated (before a quick promotion).

Their bitter rivals, Boca Juniors don’t do too badly either. Current Argentina Internationals, Carlos Tevez and Fernando Gago both began their careers at the club, as well as World Cup winner Oscar Ruggeri, whilst surprisingly it was Argentinos Juniors that produced Boca legends Diego Maradona and Juan Roman Riquelme. So River Plate may be more prolific, but Boca can point to one of the greatest players of all time. Which leads nicely to Pele and Santos.

Along with Pele, Santos also began the careers of Diego, Ganso, Robinho and the latest flavour of the month, Neymar, who’s the current holder of the South American Player of the Year title. Not a bad list to be fair.

Other

I was going to include the Golden, Silver and Bronze Ball awards for the three best players at the World Cup, but after reviewing the list, I decided it wasn’t as useful as first thought. For a start, Zidane (Cannes Youth Team) didn’t feature in the 1998 awards. After that, in 2002 Oliver Kahn won the award despite a massive howler in the Final, and South Korea’s Hong Myung-Bo took the Bronze Ball. I’m a pretty avid Football fan, but I have no recollection of this player, but do recall Michael Ballack, Miroslav Klose and Rivaldo having a pretty decent tournament before having to miss the Final. Furthermore, in 1986, there was no Silver or Bronze awards at all – with just Maradona and no one else – which given his impact on that World Cup, is probably fair enough, not that it was a completely one man team, although a little harsh on Top Scorer Gary Lineker (Leicester Youth Team) and one or two other decent players.

Conclusion

Well going through all of the lists and background research, there’s three clubs that have really stood out as having the best youth systems in the World, Ajax, Barcelona and River Plate. There’s been several clubs that have produced great batches of youngsters – The Man Utd youth team of the early 90′s produced World Class players – Giggs, Scholes, Beckham and to an extent (as a Right Back), Gary Neville. That same batch also produced the likes of Nicky Butt, Phil Neville, Keith Gillespie, Robbie Savage and whilst not World Class, they all won several caps for the their countries and had good careers. This is the same Youth System that produce the likes of Charlton, Best, Edwards back in the 50s-60s.

Similarly the famed West Ham Academy had a batch of similarly talented players from 96-99, including Rio Ferdinand, Frank Lampard, Joe Cole, Michael Carrick, Glen Johnson and Jermaine Defoe. The current team includes Tomkins, Noble and Collison, whilst going back the most famous batch of the early 1960′s included World Cup winners Geoff Hurst (Hat trick in the final), Martin Peters (goal in the final) and Bobby Moore (two assists and captain in the final). It’s a running joke that West Ham won the World Cup, but it does say a lot for their youth system to have produced three players that had such a large impact on the biggest game of all. Moving on, Trevor Brooking, Paul Ince, Alvin Martin, Tony Cottee and somewhat surprisingly Ray Houghton (amongst others) all came through the Youth Team before going on to good careers for club and country.

There are strong cases to be made for Liverpool (click here for more), Arsenal and Southampton in England, with the Saints recently producing several talented wide players – Bridge, Bale, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Dyer, as well as going back a bit further to Le Tissier, Shearer and Flowers.
But in terms of the truly top players in their continents and in the World it’s Barcelona that currently lead the way. Currently lauded as the best team in the World, and some say of all time, they’re matchday XI regularly contain upto 7 or 8 form youth team players as listed above. There’s several more promising youngsters making their way in football as well, some still with the club, some looking to advance elsewhere, but the La Masia academy is currently the most prolific youth system in World football. And well it should be, as Barcelona spend an estimated £15m a year on it – dwarfing every other club in the World. And it’s clearly money well spent.

River Plate have suffered recently, having been relegated the season before last, but the list of players mentioned above only tells part of the story. Other notable graduates from the River youth team include Almeyda, Gallardo, Hernan Crespo, De Michelis, Cavenaghi, current Roma starlet Erik Lamela and somewhat surprisingly, Colombian super star Radamel Falcao. Not too shabby.

And with Ajax, there’s not really much more I can add to the thousands of articles already written about them. It’s not just a football academy, it’s also an education system that they run, a culture. The 1995 European Champions were years of academy work paying off. From van der Sar in goal, Blind, de Boer, Reiziger and Bogarde at the back, Davids, Seedorf and de Boer in midfield and a teenage Patrick Kluivert up front. All heavily involved in the run to the final, and with some help of some others (Rijkaard, Kanu, Litmanen), were able to emulate the great 70′s team of Cruyff et al – again, heavily represented by youth team graduates.

There’s a lot more to investigate in terms of what makes a big game player. The example of the De Jong brothers in Holland proves its not just the club environment as both brothers scored regularly against Top 6 Opponents last season, but the youth team education undoubtedly helps. I’ve no doubt missed several great youth systems (Monchengladbach anyone?) but I think I’ve covered the main ones, certainly from a big game player point of view. Missed some other good ones? Leave a comment below.

Cheers,

Liam
th team by World Players, Golden Boots, Recent Big Game players, Top 50
Other Findings
Good youth team academies
West Ham
Man Utd
Liverpool
Southampton – Dyer, Bridge, Bale, Walcott, Oxlade Chamberlain, Le Tissier, Shearer, Flowers
Everton
Youth teams with speciality in positions – Southampton, Sporting Lisbon, lack of Man Utd strikers

Top 50 Big Game Scorers: 50-41

And the countdown begins. 1071 scorers, 62 years, and 1,931 goals. This is the countdown of the Top 50 Big Game Scorers. To see the other pages with rules and workings, click HERE

Treble Dutch – All three of these players have scored in major finals, but only two make the Top 50

50. Karl-Heinz Riedle (Germany) 1983-2001 / 12 Points – 4 Goals

To kick things off is the first of many German players to feature in the list (see the stats section later). Riedle enjoyed spells with Werder Bremen, Lazio, Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool before finishing his illustrious career at Fulham in 2001. Not someone that would jump out as a big game player to fans of the Premier League, the Germany International popped up with some notable goals in his career. The most memorable being his brace in the final of the 1997 Champions League. Playing for Borussia Dortmund against holders Juventus, complete with new signing Zidane behind Vieri and Boksic (a frontline so good that Del Piero was only on the bench), Riedle put Dortmund 2-0 up after just 34 minutes. Del Piero got one back before Lars Ricken’s classy lob sealed the win for the German team to give Rielde and new Aston Villa manager, Paul Lambert, winners medals. His other big game goals came in the Semi Final of Euro ’92, when his brace was once again the difference as Germany beat hosts Sweden 3-2, which was enough to see him share the golden boot with three strikes overall, though they would lose famously to Denmark in the final. He also scored in the 1989 German Cup Final for Werder Bremen in a 4-1 defeat against future club Dortmund. Sadly for Riedle, he’s not even the highest ranked Karl Heinz on the list.

49. Ruud Gullit (Netherlands) 1979-1998 / 12 points – 4 goals

Not an out and out striker, he was once described as the Dutch Duncan Edwards due to his versatility and quality. He eventually settled as a number 10 and certainly delivered on the big stage. The former PSV Eindhoven and Chelsea star is best remembered for his time in Italy with AC Milan where he linked up with fellow Dutchmen Rijkaard and van Basten. And it’s with Milan that he scored a brace in a 4-0 thumping of Hagi’s Steaua Bucharest in the the European Cup Final of 1989, after scoring in the Semi Final demolition of Real Madrid (5-0). However, the goal he’s most famous for, and on perhaps his biggest stage was in the Final of Euro 88 with that iconic header (before an even more iconic volley by his strike partner). The fact that such a great footballing nation has only won one title (I’m not talking about England), makes this goal even more important. The dreadlocks also made it look a lot cooler.

48. Horst Hubresch (Germany) 1971-1986 / 12 points – 4 goals

Not quite the household name as Gullit (unless you lived in the Hubresch house), the tall West Germany Centre Forward was known for his aerial prowess, and it was with his head that he scored two of his biggest goals, winning the Euro 1980 final with a 2-1 win over Belgium. The second goal was in the 88th minute, to win the whole tournament for the Germans. The surprising thing is that he’d never been capped before 1980, not that nerves seemed to have affected him. Just a few months earlier, he also scored two semi final goals in the European Cup as Hamburg made the final against Brian Clough’s Nottingham Forest, only to get injured on the way to defeat. Described as The Monster, the big frontman also showed his big game temperament with the winning penalty in the 1982 World Cup Semi Final with France, a game famous for Harald Schumacher’s assisination attempt on Patrick Battiston.

47. Fernando Torres (Spain) 2001-Current / 12 points – 4 goals

The first current player to feature on the list, El Nino hasn’t had a good time of it since his £50m move to Chelsea in January 2011, but the green shoots of recovery started to show near the end of the 2011-12 season. Torres’ big game goals have a neat symmetry to them, scoring a Champions League Semi Final goal for Liverpool in 2008, followed that summer by a goal in the European Championships Final. Four long years passed without any other big game goals, including a miserable 2010 World Cup, but a change in fortune came in the Second Leg of the 2011-12 Champions League Semi-Final away at Barcelona. Ten man Chelsea were under immense pressure from the European Champions, with the score level on aggregate at 2-2 but Chelsea ahead on away goals. This was a big game, and this was big pressure – then came the moment of redemption, after Torres lost the ball on the left wing, he found himself out of position, just in time for a clearance to fall at his feet with half the pitch and no opponent between him and Victor Valdes. If he’d missed then you would have feared for his future and mental stability, but Torres went round the Barca keeper to confirm Chelsea’s progression to the final, and give Gary Neville a man crush. Just a few short months later, he became the first player to score in consecutive European Championships Finals, as Spain brushed Italy aside 4-0. That made it three tournaments in a row for the Spanish national team, but only possible with Torres’ winner in the 2008 Final against Germany.

46. Amancio Amaro (Spain) 1958-1976 / 12 points – 5 goals

Moving on neatly from the man that revived Spain’s fortunes to a man that had a big hand in their first International title. Amancio Amaro had the bad luck to join Real Madrid in 1962, just after they’d won five consecutive European Cups. He had to wait until the 1965-66 season before the club won ‘their trophy’ again, scoring the equaliser in the final against Partizan Belgrade in a 2-1 win for the Madrid giants. Three semi final goals in the same competition cement his inclusion, and for his country, it was the extra time winner in the 1964 European Nations Cup (effectively Euro ’64) that proved the most decisive. Playing against Hungary, Amancio struck in the 113th minute to give Spain a 2-1 lead and put them in the final.

45. José Águas (Portugal) 1948-1964 / 12 points – 5 goals

An essential part of Benfica’s golden era alongside Eusebio, Águas scored in both the finals of the 1961 European Cup and the following year’s tournament. A prolific scorer ( 290 goals in 281 games for the Lisbon club), he won the golden boot in Portugal on five occasions. The first big game goal that he scored was in the first leg of the 1961 European Cup Semi-Final, in a 3-0 win over Rapid Vienna. He repeated the trick again in the second leg, this time ending in a 1-1 draw. In the final, Benfica would face the mighty Barcelona, who were hungrily looking for their first European Cup (they’d have to wait a while longer). Containing the legendary Hungarian trio Kubala, Kocsis and Czibor, the Catalan’s went 1-0 up, only for Águas to show his big game mettle once more and equalise, and take his tally to 11 for the tournament – wining him the golden boot. Benfica went on to win that game 3-2 to win their first European Cup. And the following year he was at it again. He scored Benfica’s goal in a 2-1 defeat to Danny Blanchflower’s Tottenham to put Benfica through to the final on aggregate (4-3), where they’d face another Spanish giant – this time it was Real Madrid, and they wanted their trophy back. Despite a hat trick by Ferenc Puskas, Benfica won 5-3 with Águas once again scoring his team’s first goal. The following year Benfica reached the final for a third successive time, but without an injured Águas, they would lose to AC Milan.

44. Santillana (Spain) 1970-1988 / 12 points – 6 goals

In what appears to be a tribute to Iberian footballers, the next up is another Spanish striker. Similar to Amancio in terms of unlucky timings, Santillana (Carlos Alonso Gonzalez) played for Real Madrid for 17 seasons, only to miss out on the European Cup. Not that he’ll be too worried after 9 league titles, two UEFA Cups and four Copa del reys. It was in the UEFA Cup Finals that he scored two of his biggest goals, with the second in a 3-0 Final win over Hungary’s Videoton (me neither) in 1985, followed a year later with the final goal in a 5-1 lesson for FC Cologne. Of course his lack of European Cup medals wasn’t for the want of trying, with Santillana scoring in two semi final goals in 1980, one the following year, and then again just before retirement in 1987. It wasn’t to be for the talented front man (8th in the all time Spanish league goalscoring list), but it wasn’t a bad career to be fair.

43. Jairzinho (Brazil) 1959-1982 / 12.5 points – 3 goals

The first entry from the legendary 1970 team was arguably their most important player. One of only three players in history to score in every game in a World Cup, Jairzinho stood out, even in the team considered by many to be the greatest of all time – certainly the most entertaining. And it’s from the 1970 World Cup that he scored two of his biggest goals, firstly in the Semi Final against Uruguay, and then he scored the 3rd for Brazil in the final against Italy. Whilst he hero worshipped Garrincha (whom he replaced for Brazil), he wasn’t short of his own confidence, claiming that FIFA had awarded him the ‘Best Body on the Planet’ prize – an award that doesn’t exist, at least not in FIFA (as seen here). I’m not sure whether or not he was a comedy genius or very arrogant but no one can deny he was one of the best of all time. His other major goal came in the 1974 World Cup Final Group stages – a winner against bitter rivals Argentina no less. He wasn’t much of a coach, getting sacked by Gabon in his only Managerial role, he did however make up for this by spotting a 14 year old Brazilian lad by the name of Ronaldo, recommending him to his old club Cruzeiro.

42. Coutinho (Brazil) 1953-1972 / 12.5 points 5 goals

Antonio Wilson Vieira Honorio (better known as Coutinho) is the football equivalent of Buzz Aldrin. Sure, a lot of people know his name, but a lot more don’t and should do. Because Countinho’s Neil Armstrong was a fella by the name of Pele. Coutinho was voted Santos’ best ever player – if you exclude Pele. He scored over 370 goals for the team, and was one of the most important players in their team during their golden era of the early 60s. And few had more impact on the team. Of the two Copa Libertadores titles they won in 1962 and 1963, Coutinho scored a whopping five final goals (two in 62/three in 63). It’s a slightly misleading stat as there were three finals in 1962 and two in 1963, but he was certainly a big game player. Just to put it into context, Pele scored three goals in the same five games.

41. Gabriel Batistuta (Argentina) 1988-2005 / 13 points 4 goals

One for the fans of 90′s Football Italia programme next. Gabriel ‘Batigol’ Batistuta was arguably the most complete centre forward of his era. Comfortable on either foot and handy in the air, he had a cannon of a shot on him. He spent the best years of his career with unfashionable Fiorentina, who somehow kept him for ten years, resulting in him not playing in the biggest European club games. One of the very few modern era footballers to play for both River Plate and hated rivals Boca Juniors (in that order), his biggest goals came in the blue and white of Argentina. Although he was a regular scorer in World Cups, he never scored in the last two rounds (he was at least the first player to score a hat trick at two World Cups). As a result, his big game scorer entries are all down to Copa America goals. In 1991, the tournament was decided by a final group table instead of a knock out round. Batistuta’s Argentina beat Colombia and Brazil along with a draw against Chile. Batistuta scored the winner against Brazil in a 3-2 victory, and the winner in a 2-1 win over Colombia – a goal that both won the tournament for Argentina, and the golden boot for the talented striker. Skip forward two years and it was Batigol that scored the decisive goals again to win the title for his country, with a brace against Mexico in a 2-1 win. Those aside, he also scored in both legs of the 1996 Coppa Italia Final to bring glory and silverware to Florence. They repaid him with a statue.