Saturday, 31 May 2014

What could have been 2013-14

If only Arsenal had signed Higuain........Chelsea needed Rooney to win the league.....Madrid were mad to sell Ozil....... And so on. Is there any truth in these statements?

You may want to stop reading here if you're looking for a definitive answer to any of the above or below questions, as I'm afraid we'll never know for sure. However, we can at least look at the impact of the players this season, along with the performance of the teams in question - it might at least give us some basis for a pub argument (non-violent of course).

The obvious place to start is with Arsenal. Many fans are bemoaning the lack of a second first team striker to either push Giroud or at least give him a rest - imagine being asked to play 50 plus games a season when you're in your physical prime? Poor sod. Anyway, many of those bemoaning fans will point at the failure to sign Gonzalo Higuain last summer, a player who looked sure to sign for the Gunners until those money hungry bastards at Real Madrid decided they'd rather receive a higher fee, from Napoli. First of all, a quick comparison of the players stats:
 

Well well well, that's not quite the obvious answer many were expecting. In the league, Higuain only has one more goal than the often criticised Frenchman. In fact, Giroud scored in more games than the Argentinian. Not so bemoaning now, are we bemoaners? Well yes and no. Whilst the actual number of goals are similar, the big difference comes in the level of opponent that Higuain has scored against compared to Giroud. Much of the criticism of poor old knackered Olly has been his impact in the big games - games where Arsenal effectively gave up their shot at the title by rolling over and having their belly tickled - and of course, (allegedly) making sweet sweet love to a beautiful woman who wasn't his wife, whilst in the team hotel. Admittedly, the defence need to have a long hard look at themselves, but it might have helped if they thought they could at least trouble the opposition. Amongst Higuain's victims were top sixers Torino (three goals) and Inter Milan. Add to that a further three against the once mighty AC Milan (the Italian Man United last season). Giroud? His one goal against Top 6 opponents was against Spurs - reflected in the average opposition comparisons.

The grey area should be pointed out - Higuain would have had different team mates to get used to, the Italian top flight is a different style to the premier league, and so on, but it at least tells a story. Given Wenger has played with a lone front man (or in the middle of a front three), it's unlikely the two would have been paired had the Argentine signed last summer, but it certainly could have given Wenger some options, and certainly in the big games. Yaya Sanogo may have a bright future, but I'm sure Wenger would have rather started the Bayern Munich game with Higuain instead him.

Whilst on the subject of Arsenal, much of the money earmarked for Higuain, still ended up with Real Madrid, but this time for Mesut Ozil. At the time of the sale, several of the Real Madrid players came out and criticised the decision to sell the talented playmaker. From the outside looking in, it appeared he was sold to help pay for Gareth Bale's transfer. So here's a look at their respective records for 2013-14, including assists - Ozil's main currency:



 

If you can overlook the fact that Bale cost around double the price of Ozil, it certainly makes for interesting reading. Granted, these stats don't show the pass before the assist - often the most important - so we could be doing Ozil a disservice here, but you can sort of see Madrid's thinking.
 
Once again, it's hard to compare directly as they play in slightly different positions and are in different leagues, but if you compare Ozil's 2012-13 assists to Bale's 2013-14 assists - for the same team against largely the same opposition, then it's a pretty close run thing. Ozil has one more and in one game less. He also has one more against Top 6 opponents. But this was Bale's first season in Madrid and almost a third of Ozil's assists in his last season for Madrid were against the teams at the bottom. Chuck in the goals and it's a clear win for Bale - maybe even a double your money win if you take into account exploits in Europe (a decisive goal in the final, an assist in the semi). It'll be interesting to revisit this comparison again next season - if someone reminds me.


And so onto the third claim made in the intro; Chelsea would have been better off with Rooney. A slightly different approach this time - a look at the opponents Rooney scored against compared to how Chelsea fared against them. As with above, it's not a perfect science, but might help settle a debate. Rooney is thought to have been one of United's stand out players in what has been a shocking season for them. But has he really been that good (£300k a week good), and would he have helped Chelsea win the league?
 
 
Yes. Sort of. I know that it's a very flawed approach and it omits a whole host of factors, but simply put, Chelsea dropped 11 points against teams that Rooney scored against last season, his goals in that team could have been the difference between winning the league and not - as Chelsea finished just 4 points off the top.

What does make bad reading for Rooney is that he only scored one goal against Top 6 opposition last season, but that wouldn't have been a problem for Chelsea who dominated against the other teams around them. It was against the likes of West Brom (4 points dropped) that they struggled. An interesting 'what if '. Statistically, Chelsea's strikers (Ba, Eto'o and Torres) contributed a combined 19 league goals - just two more than Rooney.

With the World Cup fast approaching, the Man United front man needs to step up his performances in the big games - and based on last season's opposition per goal, it doesn't make for great reading for Rooney (City aside). I certainly want him to do well, having recently started to lose my own hair, I feel a connection to the talismanic front man.



So there you have it, clear as one of those funny pictures with loads of dots on that just look like a load of dots until you really squint and concentrate and eventually see something that isn't just a load of dots. You can do that with a lot of statistics as it turns out.

Realistically, none of it can be proved definitively but the above might at least give an opinion some legs. Or some more hair on that pesky thinning bit.

Sunday, 25 May 2014

Top Scorers 2013-14 - Bundesliga - La Liga - Premier League - Serie A

With the season now over, below are the Final goal scoring stats for 2013-14 in the Top 4 European Leagues. How did Suarez's 31 Premier League goals compare with Cristiano Ronaldo's 31 in La Liga? Who scored the most goals against Top 6 opponents? And who's goals were most decisive?

Using the table below, you can sort on any of the columns to see who scored the most, gained the most points (based on points lost if their goals were removed), and the standard of opponent they did it against.

There's some interesting findings in the number such as there only being 9 players with 20+ league goals in Europe's top four leagues. Every team hopes for that 20 goals a season man, but only eight teams out of 78 had one last season.

Whilst Ronaldo and Suarez lead the way in goals, Ronaldo leads the way in the standard of opponents - scoring a joint high (with Messi) 8 league goals against other teams in the Top 6. In fact, Suarez wasn't even Liverpool's most important player - Daniel Sturridge's 22 goals were worth 21 points - a joint high with Atletico Madrid's Diego Costa. Without this meaning to be an attack on Suarez (it's not, he's a world class player), a whopping 16 of his 31 goals were against the teams in the bottom 6 - although it seems he scored more than 16 against Norwich alone this season.

Other notable entrants are Luca Toni with 21 league goals for Verona. Two years ago, at the age of 34, the former Italy striker was playing for Al Nasr in Dubai. He hadn't scored 20 goals since the 2007-08 season for Bayern Munich. That's a hell of a turn around. Ciro Immobile, the only man to outscore Toni in Italy this season, has had a similarly surprising turn around - 5 league goals for Genoa last year certainly didn't point to the golden boot this. Both had amazing seasons, but it was Fiorentina's Guiseppe Rossi who did it most in the big games - with 6 against Top 6 teams (including a hat trick against Juventus), despite being injured for large parts of the season.

In Germany, there's an interesting comparison when looking at Mario Mandzukic and the man replacing him - Robert Lewandowski. There's certainly a case to be made for keeping the Croatian as the main striker, especially for the big games.

You can filter on the team and / or the league. Team stats are available for each league on the top menu bar. For those on incompatible browsers, there's a picture version of the 20+ goal scorers below.

Sunday, 11 May 2014

Bundesliga 2013-14 Review

Another season comes to an end without too many surprises (Hamburg aside). Which players and teams excelled against the best opposition, and which were flat track bullies? Read on.....

Goalscorer Stats

First and foremost, the glamorous side of things, the fancy dans up front who take all of the glory by scoring the goals. Below is the Top 10 goalscorers with the level of opponent and how many points the team would lose if their goals were removed: 


Robert Lewandowski takes the golden boot in his farewell season for Dortmund to no doubt replace Mario Mandzukic as the centre of Bayern's attacking trio up front. On just goals, Lewandowski has out scored the Croatian and has done so in a weaker team. However, scratch a little deeper and you could argue that Mandzukic's goals have been more important - scoring a massive 5 goals against the other Top 5 teams - with two goals against both Schalke and Wolfsburg, as well as scoring against Leverkusen. Lewandowski on the other hand has just one goal against Top 5 opponents, equalising in Dortmund's 2-1 over Wolfsburg. Mandzukic can also claim to have scored more decisive goals than his replacement, contributing to 9 points for the team compared to Lewandowski's 6. In terms of penalties, Lewandowski scored four compared to none for Mandzukic. Will the Polish striker be an improvement for Bayern?

Elsewhere, only one player has more goals against the best opponents than Mandzukic, Hoffenheim's Anthony Modeste. He scored 12 goals (none were penalties) and half of them were agaisnt Top 5 opponents, as the Frenchman notched against Wolfsburg, Schalke and Bayern (for the full list of stats, click on the Bundesliga tab on the top Menu). He can lay claim to being the league's big game player/scorer whilst Mainz's Japanese international Shinji Okazaki is the most important to his team in terms of goals, winning 17 points for the team from just 15 goals.

At the other end of the scale, Arjen Robben and Frank Ribery contributed a combined 22 league goals, worth just 2 points between them. In fact none of Ribery's 10 goals were decisive to the final result. The flat track bully label can be hung on Josep Drmic who scored 17 league goals, only one of which was against the Top 5 teams, although it was actually Okazaki who scored most against the Bottom 5 teams with 7 of his 15 goals coming against the teams fighting relegation.

Team Stats

As you'd expect, this is heavily dominated by Bayern. They had the most wins versus the Top 5 (6 from a possible 8). In fact they had the most wins against Bottom 5 teams, and also the middle 8 teams. I guess the headline here would be that they won a lot of games. As always, AverageOpposition delivers a unique insight into football. Behind Bayern were Monchengladbach who managed a decent 4 wins against the 5 teams above them.

Hertha Berlin managed 11th place despite completely disgracing themselves against the Top 5 with a record that reads:

Played    10
Won       1
Drew      0
Lost        9
For         7
Against  22

Great job fellas. Dortmund must be rightfully embarrassed to have lost to them. Hertha actually only picked up one win in their last twelve matches, so their fans must be pleased that the season has ended.

In other team stats, Bayern's 7 goals conceded against the Top 5 is the league's lowest followed by Dortmund's 10, but when you consider they both finished in the Top 5, that's only 8 games each. Interestingly (depending on your viewpoint/definition) bottom team Braunschweig only conceded 16 goals against the Top 5 teams, and even managed a decent two wins and two draws against them. In fact they were sort of a big game team, beating an average placed opponent of 8.50 which was the highest in the league - shame they only managed 6 wins.

In terms of Losses, no team lost more than twice to the Bottom 5 clubs, whilst four teams didn't lose once to them. Crisis club Hamburg conceded the most goals against the best teams (29) whilst Hannover condeded the most against Bottom 5 teams with 10 against.

In the failure to score stakes, we can see why Braunschweig went down. In 12 of their 16 games against the teams in the middle of the table, they failed to register on the scoresheet. At the other end of the spectrum, Bayern only failed to score on two occasions in back to back defeats against Dortmund and Augsburg. Wolfsburg were the next most reliable team with just 4 clean sheets kept against them.

And whilst on the subject of clean sheets, no surprise to hear that Bayern lead the way with 17 shut outs followed by Wolfsburg's 14 - both keeping 10 clean sheets against the Middle 8 teams. Below is the full clean sheets data (you can see the same for Wins, Losses, Draws, For, Against and Failure to Score on the Bundesliga tool bar above).


Premier League, Serie A, and La Liga season reviews will be available in the weeks after the leagues end.

Cheers,

Liam

Wednesday, 2 April 2014

Brazil 2014 - Golden Shoe Contenders

Continuing the build up to the 2014 World Cup, this time, it's a look on where to put your money (if you're the betting type). As regular readers know, this site tracks the Top Four European Leagues tracking both the Big Game Scorers and the Flat Track Bullies (as seen in the menus at the top). And given the World Cup is the biggest stage of, I'll look at the contenders along with their odds.

Note: Odds and stats accruate at 1st April 2014

Of course being a Flat Track Bully also has it's merits when looking at leading World Cup scorers. Think back to USA '94 and Oleg Salenko scored 5 goals in a final group game against Cameroon when both teams were heading out. A bit more recently, I highlighted the curious case of Miroslav Klose. Despite being only one goal behind the great Ronaldo in the all time scoring charts, only one of his 14 World Cup goals has come after the Second Round (with 10 goals coming in group stages). He won the Golden Shoe in 2006 with 5 goals - 4 of which were against the not so mighty Costa Rica and Ecuador in the group stages.

So when considering where to put your money this year, it's worth looking at the standard of opponent in the group stages too - not just a player whose team will likely make it to the latter stages.

The Favourites - Up to 30-1

 

(all statistics are League goals only)

Lionel Messi - There are those that believe Messi won't be considered a true great until he has a great World Cup. It's no coincidence that the three greatest players of all time have all had major impacts on at least one World Cup - Pele, Maradona and Zidane. Messi's World Cup record for one of the most prolific players of all time is not great. One World Cup goal in 2006, none in 2010.

Why is he favourite now? Well it's because Argentina are now built around him. In his last 16 internationals, he has scored 18 goals - including a hat trick against bitter rivals Brazil. He'll be 26 when the tournament kicks off and of course, it's in South America.

And the fact that Argentina's group contains Bosnia, Nigeria, and Iran. Fill your boots Leo. For Barcelona this season and in fact every season, the level of opponent doesn't tend to bother him, he just scores against everyone. When you look at it like that, the odds are pretty generous if you get in quick.
Odds: 9-1

Neymar - Messi's club team mate, Neymar is very much part of the supporting cast for Barcelona. This is definitely not the case for his national team. The only man who can rival Messi for pressure at this World Cup, he has the hopes of the home nation resting squarely on his shoulders.

Why is he among the favourites? His performance at the Confederations Cup last year was impressive, taking the golden boot in the warm up for the World Cup. Although his performance for Barcelona has been a bit on the patchy side this season, he does have a goal against Real Madrid in what is one of the most high pressure matches in club football. Plus he's playing for the hosts.

The group stage sees Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon face Brazil. Whilst these are all decent teams on paper, Croatia are playing in vastly different conditions, Mexico were very poor in qualifying (relying on the US), and Cameroon were against largely untested opponents - Libya, Togo and Congo.
Odds: 14-1

Cristiano Ronaldo - The current World Player of the Year and perhaps the most driven player in world football. The Real Madrid star is well used to the big games - scoring a hat trick in the World Cup play off against Sweden, as well as countless Clasico goals, and a Champions League Final goal. He recently became the record scorer for Portugal with his 49th international goal. At 29, he is at his peak, and with a strong showing in both Euro 2004 and Euro 2012, he's got form in Tournament Football.

Why is he among the favourites? He's World Player of the year, he's scored 246 goals in 239 games for Real Madrid and he would burst a blood vessel trying to score a goal. All the play comes through him. The odds are a bit more generous due to playing for a European team and also the group stage opponents - Germany, USA and Ghana
Odds: 15-1

Luis Suarez - The leading scorer in the Top 4 European Leagues, and currently playing the best football of his career. The question mark around him mainly comes in the form of goals against the top teams in the Premier League. Whilst he has 6 goals against the Top 6, this is based at the time of play, rather than the current table. On the positive side, he's scored home and away against both Spurs and city rivals Everton, as well as a goal at Old Trafford. On the negative side, the title race is against Man City, Arsenal (just about) and Chelsea - all of whom he's failed to scored against (though does have assists).

Why is he one of the favourites? He's the top scorer in the big four leagues. He's playing with freedom and hunger (no jokes), and is almost as likely to get an assist as a goal (if players finish level on goals, the number of assists comes into account). And like Messi and Neymar, he's playing for South American team, and we all know the history of World Cups hosted in Latin America.

Group Opponents are tough though - England (who he should be used to), Italy and Costa Rica. It wouldn't be unrealistic to see a hat trick against Costa Rica, and one or two against the established European teams. It's a tough group to call though, hence the generous odds.
Odds: 17-1

Sergio Aguero - Although Suarez tops the goalscoring list, Aguero actually has a better goals per minutes record this season. Unfortunately for him, injuries have held him back. The problem with him and this is applicable for all Argentinian strikers not called Messi, is that his country has an embarressment of riches up front, so even if his fitness is okay, his place is still far from guaranteed.

Why is he a favourite? If he does play, like Messi, he's facing Iran and Nigeria and playing for a South American team. He's a prolific forward who thrives in the big games - this season has seen strikes against Man Utd, Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal. If he gets the nod over Higuain, he'll be a good bet.
Odds: 17-1

The last three players making up the favourites are Higuain, van Persie and Diego Costa. All have generous odds for a variety of factors. Higuain isn't guaranteed a starting spot, despite a great track record (including a hat trick in the last World Cup). It's likely that Messi and Aguero will start (supported by Di Maria) pushing the prolific Napoli front man down the pecking order. Robin van Persie is also at 25-1 - generous odds for the main striker in the Dutch team. Considering he has the likes of Robben and Sneijder supplying him, he should get plenty of goals. But....2010 was very poor for him, and he's spent this season in and out for Man Utd. And then there's the group - Spain, Chile (dark horses for many) and Australia. He'll have to notch a few against the weakened Aussies if he stands a chance for the Golden Shoe this time round.

Diego Costa is a tempting bet. There's been a big song and dance about him switching from Brazil to Spain in a World Cup year - especially when that World Cup is in Brazil. I think he must have been given some guarantees about starting, as that's not a decision to be made lightly. He didn't pull up any trees on his debut against Italy recently, but that was his first game with new team mates, and Atleti don't play like Spain. Playing for the World and European Champions, the main striker has been there or thereabouts for the last two tournaments - Villa and Torres for 2010 and 2012 respectively. At 27-1, this might be worth a bet.

Wider Odds - Over 30-1 to 40-1




 
This is where I personally think there's decent money to be won. One name stands out for me here - Karim Benzema. He's enjoying a fine season for Real Madrid - recently scoring a cracker in el Clasico. He's also starting to deliver for France, scoring against Holland in the recent friendly. With France facing Switzerland, Honduras and Ecuador, there's certainly an opportunity for him to rack up a few early goals, and that group should also see the French progress. At 40-1, he'll be a great outside bet. As you can see from his league goals this season, he's just as likely to score against the Top Teams as he is the bottom.
 
Other than Benzema, Rooney is England's highest placed player - he's certainly due a good tournament - no goals since his breakthrough in Euro 2004. Ex Man City pyromanic Mario Balotelli is likely to start for Italy and is in at 32-1 along with Thomas Muller (5 goals in 2010) and Belgian pair Benteke and Lukaku. There's much expected of Belgium this year, and along with Colombia, many are tipping them as dark horses.
 
As you can never write off the Germans and in particular Miroslav Klose, he's been given 40-1 odds, though the number 9 position is still up for grabs for the German national team. Andre Schurrle in the (table below) scored a hat trick in the final qualifier against Sweden, so it's hard to call this one.
 
And Torres. Oh Fernando, what has become of you? Saying that, I backed him for Euro 2012 and he came through - winning the Golden Shoe thanks to assists. He seems to be on a massive downward spiral, as reflected by his paltry 4 league goals this season. However, he still seems to do it on the big stage - Final goals in the last two European Championships, a Europa League Final goal last year, and a decisive goal away at Barcelona in the 2012 Champions League semi final suggests he still thrives on the big stage. The 2010 World Cup would beg to differ.
 

The Long Shots (selected) - 50-1 and above

 
 

England's own Daniel Sturridge is comfortably the stand out scorer for those backed at 50-1 and above. With 20 league goals (at the time of writing), the Liverpool front man has been given pretty generous odds here. It's probably because he's playing for England and the group contains Italy, and Uruguay. Like his Liverpool strike partner, if he can notch a few against Costa Rica, it could happen, but that group is very hard to call.

Elsewhere, Giroud will be battling Benzema for a starting spot in the French team, and we've seen the lack of quality in that group already. At 50-1, it's worth a quid.

Fernando Llorente is performing well for Juventus after a long settling in period, but like many others on this list, his starting place is far from confirmed.

Feeling Patriotic?

Welbeck (150-1), Defoe (120-1) and Lambert (150-1) are all long shots for a reason. Steer clear.

Notable Others

Carlos Tevez is currently leading the race for the golden boot in Serie A. His 18 goals see him lead Italy's Ciro Immobile by one. Neither should attract your money - Tevez hasn't been called up since 2011. Although widely loved by much of the country, the Argentina coach Sabella is not in that number, and it's thought that Messi doesn't play as well with Carlitos in the team. Tough break. Immobile is perhaps one for the future - at 23, he only has one cap so far. He could be the new Schillachi, but it's unlikely.

Radamel Falcao still has a slim chance of playing at the tournament but the serious injury sustained in January is unlikely to see him play again this season. Which is a shame as many have Colombia down to do great things. But all is not lost for them - they have Hertha Berlin's Adrian Ramos who has 16 Bundesliga goals this season, and Sevilla's Carlos Bacca - fresh from a brace to defeat Real Madrid.

And don't write off Fred. He's looking likely to start as the number 9 for Brazil, and although he lacks the glamour of previous Brazilian strikers, he's got a decent recent record, and played well in the Confederations Cup last year. He's available at 32-1.

Hopefully this helps you make a decision if you fancy a flutter. And if you do, something that can definitely help is a £25 free bet. Choose wisely my friends.

Cheers,

Liam


 

Tuesday, 25 March 2014

Europe's Best Goal Scoring Partnerships

After writing about the Premier League's best goal scoring partnerships a while back, I was inundated (one comment) with requests for something similar for other leagues. So, instead of signing up to do some accountancy exams that I've been putting off for 13 years, I decided the best way to spend some spare time would be to put together another list for absolutely no reward. I hope somebody somewhere enjoys reads this.

With the return to favour of partnerships such as Suarez and Sturridge, (#dare to) Zlatan and Cavani, and Negredo and Aguero, what better time to have a look back at some of the best partnerships before them. Having searched a whole two pages of Google without finding something exactly the same as this, I thought it was time to put together a combined list.

Rules and Workings
I've decided to go back 25 years to cover the 1988-89 to the 2012-13 seasons. Why 25 years? Well that just about covers my football watching memory and it's a nice round number. I've decided to include just the Top four Leagues in Europe - the top divisions in England, Germany, Italy and Spain (based on European Trophies won).

A partnership is only considered so if both players (regardless of position)have scored at least 10 goals each. For this list, I've only combined those pairs with 30 goals or more, so sadly that would exclude van Wolfswinkel and Elmander's herculean haul of 2 goals from this season. Tough break fellas.

A further blow to the Norwich duo's chances are that this season's partnerships are not included as they'll instantly make this post out of date. Expect to see Suarez and Sturridge included in the next update in space year 2038.

Joking aside, as I type, Suarez and Sturridge have just hit their combined 44th, 45th, 46th and 47th goals of the season against Cardiff, so they definitely make it into the Top Partnerships list, but as the season hasn't ended yet, their number is likely to change.

It's worth noting that the German League has fewer games, and the other leagues have varied in number of teams.

And lastly, it's league goals only.

The Stats

In all, there's a whopping 221 instances of 30 goal partnerships in the Top Four European leagues over the last 25 completed seasons - actually a lot higher than I'd expected. Spain lead the way with 70, followed by England (61), Italy (49) and Germany (41). No real shock there as Germany has fewer games, as did Italy for a good chunk of the 25 seasons in question. In terms of clubs represented, there are a decent 61 (Spain 17, England 16, Italy 15 and Germany 13).

At the top end of the food chain are the mighty Real Madrid with a 30 goal partnership in 19 of the 25 seasons recorded. No wonder they win quite a lot. As you'd expect, anything they can do, Barcelona can almost do (that would make a catchy song), and the Catalans are second on the list with a healthy 17 partnerships represented. Aside from Spain, England have Man Utd and Liverpool in double figures (13 + 10), whilst somewhat surprisingly, it's Bayer Leverkusen who lead the way in Germany with 10 partnerships making the 30 goal mark. For Italy, AC Milan are the team with the most deadly duos, featuring 8 times.

At the bottom end, there are 25 clubs with just one 30 goal partnership, sadly, my team don't even have that. The likes of Coventry's Dublin and Huckerby, are joined for their day in the sun by Villarreal's Forlan and Riquelme (2004-05). And who could forget Bochum's world famous Thomas Christiansen and Vahid Hashemian with their 31 goal haul in 2002-03. I know I certainly won't.

The 50 goal club

As mentioned above, there's a great deal of 30 goal partnerships, so many in fact, that I wonder why I used that number. So to get things going, here's a list of those partnerships that scored at least 50 league goals in a season. Just to manage expectations - it's a bit heavy with Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.

Best Strike Partnerships (50 goals +)

In fact it's basically La Liga's greatest partnerships plus three others.

As its illegal not to mention both Ronaldo and Messi when speaking about the Spanish league, it's worth having a quick look at their record in this list. Interestingly, both players have been part of a successful partnership as the second scorer - which is really what you'd have expected a few years back, with both players featuring out wide early on. Ronaldo's first season in Madrid saw him form one of the most balanced partnerships on this list, with Gonzalo Higuain. The Argentine banging in a decent 27 goals to the shy Portuguese's 26. A pretty good debut season before the championship manager stats started kicking in. Messi's season as the second scorer was in the 2008-09 season that saw Samuel Eto'o hitting 30 to Messi's 23.

Man City fans may be surprised to see Edin Dzeko in 6th place with the wall decorating Brazilian Grafite (I'm sorry) making up the pair - the highest Bundeliga entry with 54 goals. Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard have combined for 30+ goals on two occasions, with the 2009-10 season seeing a combined 51 league goals for the Chelsea legends - albeit not a typical strike partnership. However, in first place for England are Andy Cole and Peter Beardsley with a whopping 55 - all for a promoted club too. Impressive stuff. Must have been before Cole needed five chances to score (Glenn Hoddle's words, not mine).

Fans of 90s football will be disappointed not to see any Italian partnerships breaking the 50 goal mark but heartened to see the Original Ronaldo and (possibly the original) Luis Enrique with 51 goals in the 1996-97 season. Ronaldo who started the season aged just 19 would score 47 goals (all tournaments) in his only season with the Catalan giants. Damn you Gods of injury.

What is also interesting (depending on your definition), is that 11 of the 50 goal partnerships have been in the last five years - at a time when 4-5-1's have become the norm. Although a lot of them are rather dependent on Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo being involved.



The number one partnership sees Ronaldo paired up with Higuain for the 3rd time to make a 50 goal mark. The winning season being 2011-12 when Mourinho's men managed to break Barca's dominance of La Liga. A phenomenal 68 league goals from just two players is quite frankly bonkers.

Both Ronaldo and Messi feature in four 50 goal partnerships - Messi with 4 different partners, the big flirt.

Top 20 Partnerships By Country

I planned to show a top ten by country, but La Liga's are already on show, and it would also mean leaving out the likes of Batistuta and Oliveira who thrived on Rui Costa's assists in 1997-98. And because we haven't featured much from Serie A just yet, now seems as good a time as any. So without further ado:

Serie A Top Scoring Partnerships 1988-2013
Serie A Top Scoring Partnerships

Premier League/Division One Top Scoring Partnerships 1988-2013
Premier League Top Scoring Partnerships

La Liga Top Scoring Partnerships 1988-2013
La Liga Top Scoring Partnerships

Bundesliga Top Scoring Partnerships 1988-2013
Bundesliga Top Scoring Partnerships v2

I know what you're thinking - where's Vialli and Mancini? They were undoubtedly a great strike partnership, but they were also playing in the most defensive era of a league known for being defensive. They're best season together came in 1990-91 when they combined to score 31 league goals (ranked 35th in the Serie A charts).

It also turns out there was top flight football in England before the Premier League, I'm just as surprised as you. There's three entries from the old Division One, with Barnes and Rush scoring a decent 39 combined goals in the triumphant 1989-90 season for Liverpool, followed by Le Tissier and Wallace (Rod) for Southampton and Wright and Campbell for Arsenal.

Spain's list sees the crowd pleasing entry of Romario and Stoichkov, who notched 46 goals in 1993-94 whilst the Bundesliga entry reminds us of just how good Roy Makaay was. In fact the Dutchman is one of a number of players who feature across multiple leagues, with the likes of Ronaldo, Ronaldo (not a typo), Ibrahimovic, Eto'o, Raul and Berbatov (along with others).

Other Notes of Interest
Top 10 Teams are:
Real Madrid19
Barcelona17
Man Utd13
Liverpool10
Bayer Leverkusen10
Arsenal9
Bayern Munich9
AC Milan8
Valencia7
Juventus7

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Only 8 players have featured in five or more 30 goal partnerships and top spot doesn't go to Messi or Ronaldo, but rather Raul who has been involved in 10 great partnerships. Across two countries, he scored goals with Morientes, Zamorano, van Nistelrooy (2), Ronaldo (2), Guti, Huntelaar, Higuain, and Suker. That's impressive.

The other compatibles are Cristiano Ronaldo (7), Messi, Del Piero, Makaay, Eto'o, Berbatov, and Rooney (all five).

So there you have it, it's not just the big man-little man partnership (Quinn-Phillips), or the classic goalpoaching number 9 and playmaking number 10 (Romario and Stoichkov) that make great partnerships. It can be wide men with false number 9s, a lone striker with an advanced midfielder (Torres and Gerrard/Drogba and Lampard) or if you're lucky, it may even be Toni Polster and Bruno Labbadia (FC Koln 1994-95).

This season will see entries from Suarez and Sturridge, Ronaldo and Benzema, and Messi and Sanchez. Tevez and Llorente also stand a good chance of joining the elite club along with a few others.

I'll chuck the full list up in the coming days.

Cheers,

Liam

Saturday, 8 March 2014

World Cup - Big Game Scorers

Continuing the build up to the upcoming World Cup, we've taken a different look at the Top Scorers in the history of the tournament and looks at their big game credentials:
In all, a whopping 2208 Goals have been scored in the nineteen tournaments so far, with 1166 different players getting in on the act - 500 of these goals scored by just 50 players. There's always been a bigger focus on the goalscorers, and this article is guilty of this. Where we're trying to be different however, is to separate those great goalscorers - was your favourite a big game scorer, or a flat track bully?

Scope
Our aim was simple on paper - find out who the Big Game Scorers are in the history of the World Cup. "No problem" we said - shouldn't take long. Wrong on both counts. As you'd expect from this site, there's an element of the scientific behind the approach but football isn't always black and white. For a start, the last World Cup had 32 teams competing (there's already talk of expanding to 40 in future installments), compared to the 13 that competed the first edition in 1930. Chuck in a changing format (I'm looking at you 1950, '74, '78 and '82) and certain adjustments have to be made (see below).

Approach/Workings
In 1994, the Golden Boot was shared between Russia's Oleg Salenko and Hristo Stoichkov of Bulgaria. On paper, they're both deserving of the appreciation that the title gives. However, Salenko scored 5 of his goals in a group game against Cameroon (which was a dead rubber) after both teams were already out. Stoichkov on the other hand, scored 3 in the group stage (including 2 against Argentina), as well as one in the Last 16, the Quarter Final and the Semi Final. And it's the 1994 golden boot gives the best example of what we're trying to prove here.

With the example of the 1994 World Cup in mind, we decided to create a weighting system based on two major derivatives - the quality of Opposition and the stage of the tournament. Add in those two variations and you've got a points system decided by the weight of the stage divided by the rank of opponent (with the exception being the Final, where full points were awarded for both teams). Fortunately for us, FIFA decided in 1986 to put together a retrospective ranking system based on every tournament from 1930 to 1986, based on performance in the tournament and also each team's qualification record. Even more fortunately, they continued this ranking system after each tournament - giving us a sound basis for the stats.

A little more troublesome was the score given to each round of the tournament. If we were to take the last tournament as a basis, then there's no problem - 6 points for a Final goal, 4 for the Semi, 3 for the Quarters, 2 for the Last 16 and 1 point for a group game goal. The trouble exists in four particular tournaments. Firstly, 1950 didn't even have a Final. By default, the final Group game between Uruguay and Brazil decided who finished top of the group and therefore the World Champions - due to that being decided in the last game, this is often mistaken for the World Cup Final when in fact a draw would have seen Brazil claim the title (for the calculations, this game was treated as a final). Then there's the 1974 and 1978 installments. Despite 1970 being seen as one of the greatest if not the greatest World Cup, it was decided that things would be freshened up by doing away with the Quarter and Semi Finals and instead replacing them with a Final Group stage. It's obvious what you're thinking - that just doesn't sound like FIFA - making a non-sensical decision on a World Cup, but it's true. Due to the larger number of teams in 1982, the Final Group stage remained, but fortunately there was at least a Semi Final round this time. So with that in mind, these are the weightings per stage:

  
The First Round existed in the 1934/38 Tournaments instead of Group Stages - so when the Dutch East Indies (Now Indonesia), made their way to France in 1938, they probably hoped to play more than one match before the long journey home.


The Data
So on to the main event - just who were the Big Game Scorers in World Cup history. Well there's some obvious names in the list, but also some noteable omissions from the Top 20:
  

No real great surprise in the winner. Pele played an scored in four tournaments, and most importanly, is one of only four men to have scored in two separate finals along with Vava (2nd), Zidane (3rd) and Paul Breitner in 10th. Also in the Top 10 is Geoff Hurst, the only man to have scored a Hat Trick in the biggest game in Football.

The talking points begin when looking at certain names. Brazil's Ronaldo is the top scorer in the World Cup history yet his 15 goals are worth less than Zidane's five. How so? Well Zidane has three final goals to Ronaldo's two, plus a Semi Final goal and a Round of 16 goal. Zidane is such a big game Scorer, that he doesn't even bother in the group stages. Ronaldo on the other hand, has seven group goals - against the likes of China, Costa Rica and Morocco.

Though he's not really too much of a victim here - he's still in the Top 5 of the Big Game Scorers in the World Cup. How does he compare against the second and third top scorers in World Cup history?


 
Well it doesn't look too good. Fontaine had the decency to at least score in the Semi Final. Klose on the other hand had a good 2002 World Cup on Paper - scoring 5 goals. However, he also played in the Quarter Final, the Semi Final and the Final that year, all without scoring. Similarly, he top scored in the 2006 World Cup on home soil, and only scored in one of the three knock out games he played (the Quarter Final with Argentina). At the time of writing, Klose is still in with a shout of playing in this year's World Cup and only needs one more goal to equal the record, but as you can see from above, he'll need to do more in the latter stages to really earn a comparison with Ronaldo.

Paul Breitner was the most efficient with his goals, scoring just three but gaining a place in the Top 10 Big Game Goalscorers. Two of his three were in World Cup Finals (1974 and 1982), to add to the group stage goal against 22nd Placed Chile in 1974. In fact the only player not to score in the Final from the Top 20 is England's Gary Lineker. Whilst he has a 50-50 split in Group Stage/Knock Out goals, his Semi Final effort in 1990 was against eventual winners West Germany, whilst his Quarter Final effort in 1986 (which won him the Golden Boot) was also against the team ranked in the number 1 spot - Argentina. Evidence of reward for scoring against the best opposition.

But what of the Flat Track Bullies? Well we've seen the impact of Klose and Fontaine, but they're certainly not the worst offenders of the prolific scorers. One of the World's Top Strikers in the 1990s was Gabriel Batistuta. In fact he was the first man to score a hat trick in two World Cups. Overall, he has 10 goals to his name in the World Cup. His position based on the weightings? He's sitting in 181st place. In this instance, his hat trick in 1994 was against Greece - the team that FIFA ranked 24th out of 24 in that Tournament after they lost all three games, conceding 10 and scoring none. Similarly in 1998, Batigol's hat trick was against Jamaica (ranked 22nd). Of his 10 World Cup goals, 8 of them were in group games and the two knock out goals were both in the Round of 16 (and penalties at that). Undoubtedly an incredible player - but his big game credentials could be questioned on this stage.

Elsewhere, German pair Uwe Seeler and Jurgen Klinsmann have 9 and 11 goals respectively, which are only good enough for 213th and 153rd places. Raul's 5 goals for Spain, see him ranked in 402nd place in the points scored. Someone that normally draws attention in these lists is Maradona. He ranks in a respectable 69th place (out of 1166 players remember). His 8 goals include two at the Semi Final stage against Belgium (4th) and two in the Quarters against England (ranked 8th) - even though he should have points deducted for that hand ball! That sees him tucked in nicely between fellow South Americans Daniel Pasarella and Uruguay's Diego Forlan.

For those looking to be a bit more current, Messi has just one goal in the group stage, Cristiano Ronaldo has just two and Luis Suarez's exploits in South Africa saw just the three goals. The highest ranked player eligible for 2014 is Andres Iniesta, largely due to his winning goal in 2010. It's fair to say that there's not as many big game scorers in modern times.

Conclusion
So what does all of this tell us? Well first and foremost, you should never just look at the goals scored column. Yes, it's an impressive achievement to score a large number of goals in the World Cup like Batistuta or Klose, but they're flattering to deceive on the biggest stages. Players like Brazil's Ronaldo and West Germany's Gerd Muller scored in pretty much every round and the occasion and level of opponent didn't seem to get to them (the strange case of the 1998 Final aside). And then there's the specialists who seem to come alive in the late stages - Hurst, Zidane, Breitner and Brehme.

Another aspect that became clear when putting the stats together is that it's a lot harder to score now. The average number of goals per game peaked in 1954 at a massive 5.38 compared to 2010's 2.27 (second only to 1990's 2.21). Should this be taken into account? Quite possibly. We believe that the ranking system has counted for this (see talking points) but it's certainly worth a discussion.

We know that football isn't just about statistics and goals, but you'd still expect the big name goal scorers to be the big game goal scorers. That's not always the case.

Note: This data was first used on the excellent Football Fanalytics as seen here:
http://www.footballfanalytics.com/big_game_players.html

Monday, 24 February 2014

Combined Leagues

Want stats by opposition? Click on the name of the league you want to see on the above menu for Team Stats, player comparison and more.

For a quick preview, below are the goalscorers by opponent for all four leagues:

Wednesday, 15 January 2014

Buy, Sell, Hold? Premier League Forecast - Round 21

Arsenal improved from last season? Nope. Man Utd destined to finish outside the Top 4? Unlikely. In what is the first ever guest post, Michael Geaghan makes his Premier League predictions based on the season so far and the results in the remaining corresponding fixtures from last season.....

Man City to win the league. Arsenal guaranteed top 4. Man Utd’s league season already finished. Palace to get relegated. Newcastle top half. Maybe, Maybe not.

They say a league only tells the truth at the end of the season. We saw a glimpse of the reality behind this at the midway point in the current season, where the only change in the top 4 was Everton replacing Man Utd in the coveted Champions League positions, even though the talk for the first 15/16 games of the season was whether Liverpool could mount a challenge on the league title only to finish the halfway point in 5th and 6 points behind the leaders.

Every fan has their own memories of their own personal experience of luck at the timing of playing teams, injuries, after a midweek game, whilst the opposition are on a good run, a bad run, the same applying for their team. Starting games with confidence has a huge effect on the outcome of results, but the simplicity is that all teams play each team home and away. At the start of each season each manager will identify where they are going to pick up points, and at the same time expectations are managed post games as to whether their teams have ‘dropped points’ or gained bonus unexpected points.

Every week I overwrite the previous season’s results with the current season’s – for the corresponding fixtures. For example, Arsenal are generally touted as the ‘most improved team of the season so far’. That isn’t actually the case. Although they were top of the league at the halfway point and remain there as I write, they are in fact one point worse off than the same games last season. We all remember, I certainly do as a spurs fan, the incredible run that Arsenal went on towards the end of the season that has slightly skewed the figures, but it does show that they have now consistently been a good team for quite some time. The season finishing and restarting just fell at the wrong time as the last 12 months have definitely showed champion consistency and quality, just not in the same season...so far anyway. This also points towards the basis for this, in looking at the premier league table now and as a forecast for the final positions. If the results are as similar as last season, as has been the case so far, they could even find themselves outside of the top four.

After 21 games, as mentioned above, Arsenal are one point worse off than the same games played last season. I mentioned I am a spurs fan, they are actually one point better off. Clearly though, Arsenal are entering the final 17 games of the season with confidence and with a very different pressure hanging over their shoulders. The games they struggled in last season are the games they have yet to play.

I think a fair argument is that Man City are the best footballing team in the league at the moment and they have the strongest squad, they are though competing on four fronts. they are brutal in front of goal regardless of who the opposition is. The recent game at Newcastle goes to show though that they can get beat, they didn’t, a crazy refereeing decisions helped make sure they got all three points on the day, but they are not indestructible. Their start of season questionable away form appears to have been eradicated. They have already accumulated a staggering 16 points more than in the same games last season. Plus they have achieved this with a little more panache than last season, 28 goals more than the correlating games last season (see goals comparison in the table below). With the bookies end of season points tally spread for City currently set at 82.5-84 I would certainly be buying that, as they are on target for around 88 points. Inheriting last seasons results to complete the league forecast will result in them winning every home game. At home they only have Chelsea, of the so called ‘big teams’, to entertain at the Etihad and so that is not an unachievable target. Away from Manchester they inherit results from last season where they picked up only 14 points (from a possible 24) from the remaining 8 games they have left on the road.

At the bottom of the league, the promoted teams within this system inherit the respective relegated team from last season - Cardiff assume Wigan’s results, Hull assume Reading’s and Palace assume QPR’s. This only really stands due to the team staying in the premier league retaining their results and so implying the result against the promoted teams. The games played against each other is the obvious draw back in this system.

Of the promoted teams though interestingly, and at the same time worryingly for Cardiff and Palace, is that on a like for like comparison Cardiff have accumulated exactly the same amount of points as Wigan had over the same games last season and Palace are 1 point worse off - and that’s against a miserable return of only 25 points that QPR managed to get last season. It’s been quite obvious to see that Hull have certainly done themselves proud in the first half of the season and are well on their way to achieving the 40 points target. On that note I think it may be as low as a good goal difference on 36 points needed to stay in the division this season.

Man Utd at the top end of the division finished the league 11 points better off than second placed City. This means that not only are they finding it tougher this season, but they are inheriting good points emphasising how many points they have dropped compared to last season. A staggering 13 points worse off than last season, by far the largest difference in points versus the previous season. They are though Man Utd, and despite what everyone says, they have the same players as last year and can still very easily go and beat any other team in the league. They are still on target for 76 points, a target that is still very achievable, as they have definitely turned the corner in my view. I think they are out of the title race, but by no means are out for the race for the top four.

West Ham, which I am sure most of you would have noticed, have also been shedding points. They currently sit in the relegation zone having dropped 10 points versus the same games played last season.

Aside from Man City’s increase in fortunes by the 10 points mentioned earlier, Southampton are 11 points better off, and Liverpool close behind with a better return to the tune of 9 points.

See below the forecast league table after 38 games:

How to interpret this?

Stats are stat, numbers are numbers, so long as the assumptions are clear and understood then anyone can interpret the numbers as they wish. For me though the main advantages are vs. the Spreads being offered by bookies as to the final points tally for each individual team. You may be surprised at how some of them read and below is a brief summary comment on each team and the spreads currently being offered as at 15th January 2014. This is by no means any solicitation to encourage anyone to place any bets, or to entice or act as advice in placing any bets, it is shown purely as food for thought based along the lines of the article and along side the fact that the league only tells the truth after all games have been completed.

The format of the note will be:

Current league position: Team Name: Forecast points using my assumptions: Spread being offered: Bet Signal (Buy/Sell/hold/Other, for other see the comment below). If the forecast points and the spread are to close and so no real difference ‘Hold’ will be the call. It is interesting how similar they are and so I only consider the real opportunities in the spreads offered as worth buying or selling.

1: Arsenal: 72: 79-80.5: Other.

I would avoid betting on Arsenal either way. The bookies have them finishing 3rd but as to the points I think they will pick up more than the forecast indicated 72. They dropped points against Swansea, Fulham, Man City and Man Utd at home, whom they are yet to play and away from home dropped points against Stoke, Chelsea, Everton, Tottenham & Southampton. As you glance over the results some are realistic and will happen, I don’t think all will though and so feel a better return than the forecasted 72 points will be achieved, just not enough to want to buy or sell the spread either way from the bookie.

2: Man City: 88: 82.5-84: Buy

As already spoken about I can see City smashing the 84 points being offered by the bookies.

3: Chelsea: 80: 79.5-81: Hold

I think that if you held a gun to my head I would be buying the points as 81. At home only dropping points against Spurs and Man Utd to come, do not give a huge amount of room to deter from last season results to come. Away from home is a different kettle of fish. Of the games remaining they dropped points at Swansea, Palace (well QPR back then), Liverpool, City & West Brom, and I can’t see them dropping points for what would effectively be every other away game. They will drop points but not at the rate they did. The forecast inheriting all these dropped points is bang in the middle of the odds spread being offered and so I would consider a very prudent forecast and buy would be the spread as I think more probability they will pick up more than the forecasted points than they will drop them.

4: Liverpool: 70: 73-74.5: Hold (due to commentary below)

They are a bit of a wild card this season, mainly because of the little genius from Uruguay. Love him or hate him, the guy is incredible. They are yet to host Chelsea, Arsenal, City and Spurs at home (probably shouldn’t include spurs as a possible threat after the 5-0 mauling at the lane a few weeks back). Of those teams they only got full points against spurs last season and so there is a lot of scope for their points tally to improve, coupled with getting beat by Villa at home. Liverpool do not have what would be considered as really tough games away from home apart from Man Utd, for which they are not ‘expected’ to get three points.

5: Everton: 66: 67.5-69: Sell

I think the big difference in the second half of the season will come from the home wins against Man Utd and Man City, which I can’t see them getting full points from again. Away from home results I can see staying fairly consistent with last season, games to play away from home = 9, those games last season saw them win 1, lose 4 and draw 4.

6: Tottenham: 73: 68.5-70:  Buy

I promise this is unbiased. I think the home games will return a similar amount of points, Man City and Arsenal are yet to play at White Hart Lane from which Spurs got full points from last season, but also Fulham and Cardiff (Wigan last season) for which they lost both games. The two toughest away games they have are at Liverpool and Chelsea, they only gained 1 point from the same games last season so do not have a lot of points to replace. Their away from, of which I am about to curse, has so far been good.

7: Man Utd: 76: 69-70.5: Buy

They will have a better second half of the season than they did the first. Sure in the second half of the season so far they dropped all three points at home against Spurs, but they did last season, so was in the numbers as an assumed result.

8: Newcastle: 47: 53.5-55: Sell

My nephew won’t be happy as an avid Newcastle fan but the points spread offered is some way above where the forecast is plotting them. The games they have remaining didn’t yield a lot of points for them last year. The forecast has them getting less than a point per game for the rest of the season. I don’t think they will finish as low as 47 but would still be selling the points tally being offered.

9: Southampton: 52: 52.5-54: Hold

They are a little hit and miss again following the great start to the season. Injuries, suspensions and fatigue have set in. I don’t see a big indicator away from the spread being offered to call either way, and with the concerns at the club surrounding who will be in-charge tomorrow let alone at the end of the season, i would avoid placing any money on Southampton either way.

10: Swansea: 44: 42.5-44: Hold

Any team can turn up when you play Swansea, they can be world beaters on any given day. They are hit and miss though and with Europe about to kick off again with a two leg Napoli distraction I think the point’s tally spread is in line with the forecast.

11: Hull: 35: 39-40.5: Hold

The forecast numbers using my assumptions have been skewed due to inheriting Reading’s results from last season, so I am avoiding this. I think they will stay up, they are spending money. All they need to do now is sort out the name debate and for what its worth I think the name should stay Hull City AFC. This is England, we are traditionalists, we do not have franchise football, and we don’t want it. Dr Allam, you have been great at Hull so far, leave it as Hull City AFC and concentrate your time, legal and marketing money on improving Hull City AFC and the local area. By all means give a name to something you have given birth to or created from nothing, but don’t change the name of a 110 year old club.

12: Aston Villa: 40: 39.5-40: Hold

The bookies have them finishing as the stats show. It is a shame really as I thought they had put in the hard graft last season and had turned the corner, that they were going to start pushing up the league a little with a little more consistency. They seem to have sizzled out a bit. They gave the Gooners a good run for their money the other night, but need a lot more consistency towards the back end of the season.

13: Stoke: 45: 39.5-41: Buy

A top half finish is in the sights of Stoke.  A change of manager hasn’t really had a huge change in fortunes, but they are showing the fight they have had since joining the premier league. So silly dropped points at home are built into the numbers from last seasons home loss against West Ham, and as a comparison only picked up 10 points away from home from the 9 away games, of which most are against bottom half opposition and I think they will better that in the latter stages of this season.

14: West Brom: 39: 39.5-41: Hold

They were a good solid outfit last season and have already dropped an additional 10 points from the 21 same games last season. At home they seemed to beat the teams they shouldn’t and lose to the teams they should, well that’s how the forecast looks, I can see them getting 6 points at home against Liverpool and Chelsea, but at the same time can see them getting more points than the zero obtained at home against stoke, Cardiff and Fulham last season. There is not real indication either side from the spread set at the bookies so avoiding this one.

15: West Ham: 39: 36-37.5: Buy

They wont get relegated. I think they are too good. They just need the ‘senior’ player to stop acting like an impetuous 17 year old. You simply can’t have your leader getting sent off so needlessly. It could be a blessing in disguise as it will give others a chance, and watching the game at Cardiff they definitely showed a lot more togetherness than I have seen (away from White Hart Lane of course where they have had a great amount of joy from this season). To reach the 39 forecasted points they only need to better 4 points from the remaining 8 away games and 15 from the 27 points available from home games.

16: Norwich: 42: 36.5-38: Buy

They have five very winnable games to come at home, one they could possibly win and three I can’t see them getting anything from of which last season they gained 17 points. This included beating Arsenal though and so I think the 17 points is the top end of what they will achieve from the remaining games. Away from home they only picked up 5 points from the equivalent 24 points available last season. With Cardiff, Swansea, Villa, Fulham, West Ham & Southampton on the away day calendar equally hit and miss they could see them selves getting the forecast 42 points and more importantly safety.

17: Fulham: 44: 34.5-36: Buy

The remaining fixtures do contain three good results they achieved away from home last season, 3 points at Spurs, Swansea and West Brom. I don’t see them achieving three away wins again but there is certainly enough games in their favour to gain more than the suggested 17 points the bookies are suggesting are at the top end of what they can achieve in the remainder of the season. I don’t think the 44 forecast will be achieved in full but they won’t be far off.

18: Cardiff: 36: 34-35.5: Hold

It’s been tough, especially when compared to their neighbours in Swansea.  Whilst I have no doubt Ole has a good understanding of the Premier League they do not look like picking up more points than the 36 forecasted to make.  Also considering the forecast contains away wins at Spurs, Southampton and West Brom I think the top end of the points Cardiff will achieve is already in the numbers. I hope the optimism of the club and the fans remain and that the forecast is wrong as I like having two teams of the county of Wales in the Premier League. If you haven’t been to Cardiff to watch sport go, it is home to, what I think is one of the greatest sporting venues, the millennium stadium and it is a great host city for most events.

19: Crystal Palace: 24: 30.5-32: Hold

The numbers say to sell, but realistically they have inherited terrible results from QPR, albeit that they are worse off season on season than the results they were skewed by the terrible results early on in the season. Tony Pulis has already forced through a change in fortunes but I don’t think they have enough quality or confidence to gain more than another 19ish points I think will be needed to stay up. It is all well drawing but they need some wins to gain points, and prevent others from getting those points and converting the draws to wins is going to be tough.

20: Sunderland: 36: 34.5-36: Hold

I think they will be on the cusp of relegation with 36 points. The forecast already includes them picking up 16 points from the 9 home games remaining, only 4 away from home though. They have some winnable games at home remaining that saw them drop points in last season, notably Swansea, Palace, Stoke, Southampton and West Brom, not winning any of the mentioned games. If they stay up it is going to have to be from home, away from home they have the hardest games to come: Arsenal, Newcastle, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Man City, only away at Norwich is a game Gus is planning on taking a lot from. The derby at St James' could be as crucial in the run in as it was last season.

To Conclude as at 15th January 2014 the bets I would personally consider placing versus the final league points spead being offered are:

Buy:

Man City @ 84, Man Utd @ 70.5, Spurs @ 70, Stoke @ 41, Norwich @ 38, Fulham @ 36, West Ham @ 37.5

Sell:

Everton @ 67.5, Newcastle @ 53.5


How it works, The Assumptions.
We assume the previous season’s results as the starting point for the current season.

We then overwrite the previous result with the current seasons result as the game is played.
The league table is then adjusted to reflect the forecast finish for each team after 38 games.

Each promoted team inherits the respective relegated team, for the season 2013/14 the changes are as follows. Agreed this is the largest assumption but one would estimate that the premier league teams should be stronger and so the results of the teams remaining in the division start with the previous results. Quite appropriately the promoted sides are the wildcards in the top division for the first season.
Cardiff as the champions of the Championship inherit the previous seasons results of 18th positioned Wigan

Hull as the Championship runner up inherit the previous seasons results of 19th positioned Reading
Crystal Palace as the promoted team via the playoffs inherit the previous seasons results of bottom of the table QPR